The 2006 NFL Schedule:
Your Roadmap to Success
 by Greg Alan
4for4.com

Folks, to win your league championship, you must get hot at the end of the season! 

All your research during the summer will fail to net a championship if you run out of gas during your Fantasy playoffs.

LESS EFFORT + MORE RESULTS = A MUST DO
Many Fantasy strategies and tactics often require tons of preparation and often result in rather minimal gain. However, leveraging “Hot Spots” requires little time and often yields a big upshot. Sound good? Buckle up and let’s dig in. ...

In truth, having just one or two favorable add-on scheduling matchups during your playoffs is often all it takes to gain an edge -- and walk off with a championship.

In this article, I make a case for the phrase "Timing is Everything." Keep that theme in mind this season. If you wisely leverage the NFL schedule, you'll be able to cleverly time trades, artfully target waiver wire pickups and most importantly, optimize your roster for the playoffs.

Even if your draft doesn't go well, by leveraging "Hot Spots" you'll be turning negatives into positives and strengthening your team.

We’ll start out with some traditional Strength of Schedule (SOS) research. In addition, I'll offer up a few observations. 

I'll also share the initial 4for4.com 2006 Defense Team rankings. We'll integrate these rankings into the 2006 NFL schedule. Then, we'll build a roadmap and flag some "Hot Spots." We'll pay particular attention to the final few weeks of the NFL regular season -- Fantasy Football playoff time.

In addition, we’ll review the 4for4.com Team Defense “Hot Spots” -- a great time saver in helping plan out your Team Defensive starts.

But, before we dig in, I need to get everyone on board and talk about how important the NFL schedule is when it comes to winning your Fantasy Football Championship.

Case Study No. 1 -- Chris Schussman wins big in WCOFF
In WCOFF’s first season, despite drafting Vinny Testaverde and Shane Matthews as his starting QBs and fielding a draft day roster that claimed Rod Gardner as a No. 1 receiver, the WCOFF league champion, Mr. Chris Schussman, walked away with a cool $200,000 grand prize. How did he do it? Plain and simple, he got red hot in the playoffs starting in Week 13. As it turns out, each of his first three draft picks had green (good) "Hot Spots" in the WCOFF playoffs. All three of his top picks delivered when it counted the most and Chris walked away a huge WCOFF winner!

Case Study No. 2 -– Greg Alan goes 53-0!
That same year, I competed in an 11-team private Fantasy league. In this auction/draft league I faced long time rivals, several of whom I consider to be among the strongest Fantasy Football players in the world. Because I built my roster around the 4for4.com "Hot Spots" I was literally unstoppable after midseason. In fact, I was the highest scoring team six weeks in a row! As a result, coming down the stretch I posted a head-to-head record of 53-0, dominated the playoffs and walked off with another championship.

Case Study No. 3 -– Jim McVicar plans and wins FFTOC
The first FFTOC Champion, Jim McVicar, summed it up this way, “I started working on (and planning out) my lineups for last year in May just as I have this year. ... I really can’t wait for this season to begin.” Turns out, Jim saved and planned to use a number of studs in the final week of the FFTOC playoffs. All those players had easy matchups, giving McVicar the points he needed to win the FFTOC Online Championship title.

After all the draft-day strategy, all the player evaluations and preseason analysis, the fact remains -- if you want to win a big-time national contest like WCOFF or the FFTOC you need to get hot at the end of the season. If you don't get hot at the end, your chances of winning it all are slim. The same is true in most local leagues -- you must finish strong.

Next, I'll address specifics about the 2006 NFL season. I'll focus on actionable tips and things you can use. 

Strength of Schedule (SOS)
To kick things off, we'll start by examining opponents' win-loss records from the prior season. As is the case with much SOS data, you'll want to use caution and good reasoning, especially if your SOS analysis completely hinges on performance from last year.

I'd strongly suggest you steer clear of fragmented stats derived solely from last year's data. As much as I love analysis, Fantasy managers that drill down into measures like "Yardage Allowed to a TE" and "Opponent's Red-zone FG accuracy" often miss the big picture. These studies often lack predictive rigor. Measures like "Yardage Allowed to an Opposing No. 3 WR" rarely hold up from year-to-year.

Rather than generate a stack of metrics based on last year's data, the trick is to look for significant outliers and shifts from the prior season. That’s exactly what Table I does for us.

Table I -
2006 Strength of Schedule
(ranking on change from 2005 to 2006)

A few things to keep in mind as you examine Table I. ...

* If you liked the Dolphins’ offense last year, you'll enjoy the 2006 season. Miami looks to benefit from their 2006 schedule as long as they keep their offensive momentum going and they stay healthy. Ronnie Brown will face plenty of teams that can’t stop the run. Compared to their opponents in 2005, Miami has a much easier schedule this year. Also keep in mind the Dolphins ended the 2005 season winning their last six games in a row. It’s hard not to be impressed with what the Dolphins’ new coach Nick Saban has done in just one year.

* The Packers’ offense might do better than some might think. The schedule makers certainly did their part. Green Bay’s schedule looks much easier in 2006 than it was last year (44 percent vs. 50 percent). In fact, outside of Weeks 1 and 17 (against the Bears), the Packers have plenty of good matchups. Coming down the stretch in your Fantasy season Green Bay faces the Lions, Jets and 49ers!

* In part, as a result of winning the Super Bowl last year, the Steelers will face their toughest schedule in four years. Prior to 2005, the Steelers always seemed to enjoy a major scheduling advantage. Not this year. Week 15 is always a critical week for Fantasy managers, and that week the Steelers face Carolina. And in Week 16 they play the Ravens. Both the Ravens and Panthers look to have above average defenses in 2006. If you have Steeler players and they are doing well, the time to trade them is after Week 11. From that point on, their defensive schedule gets harder.

* Due to a very disappointing performance in 2005, the Bills have an easier schedule in 2006. Willis McGahee and Company will battle foes with a 47 percent win rate. Last year, entering the season, Buffalo faced teams with a 53 percent win rate. In Week 16, with many FF Super Bowls hanging in the balance, McGahee and Lee Evans face the Titans.

* In a case of the rich getting richer, things look very promising for Colts offense.  Peyton Manning, Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison will work their magic against the easiest schedule they have seen in four years! In Week 16 the Colts face their easiest defensive foe all year -- the Texans. It doesn’t get much easier than that, and it hardly seems fair. I’ll have more on Peyton Manning later in the article. You won’t want to miss it.

* The Patriots have no excuses. They have a much easier schedule in 2006. In fact, they have the third most favorable shift in schedule difficulty in the entire league. Outside of Weeks 9 and 12, good matchups will be had as New England faces the Bills, Jets, Packers, Lions, Titans and Texans in 2006. That should spell big Fantasy points for Tom Brady and the New England ground game.

* Despite a losing season in 2005, the Eagles’ schedule actually gets much harder in 2006. Thanks to the competitive NFC-East, Philly has the most unfavorable shift in schedule difficulty in the entire league. At the start of last season the guys from South Philly faced teams with a combined winning record for 45 percent. This year it’s up to 52 percent. The Giants are in the same boat -– the Blue team from New Jersey plays their hardest schedule in four years.


* The Chargers should be able to pile on Fantasy points the first two weeks facing the Titans and Raiders. In addition, a few weeks later they get the porous 49ers and then the Rams! If you own Phillip Rivers and he’s really kicking it after Week 9, consider trading him and demand plenty in return. You might be able to pull a classic sell-high move.

* On the flip side, look at those Titans. They just can’t catch a break. Their schedule actually gets harder in 2006. Over a three-week period they face Indy, Washington and Dallas. 4for4.com has all three of those team defenses ranked in the top 8 this season.  Adding insult to injury, the Titans also face the always-rugged Ravens a few weeks later.

* The Cleveland Browns have plenty of reason to gripe about their luck! If losing Kellen Winslow to injury in 2004 and 2005 wasn’t bad enough, the 2006 Browns’ schedule gets brutal towards season’s end. Fantasy owners should take note -- starting in Week 14 the Browns face Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Tampa Bay! If any Cleveland players come out of the gate strong, be sure to trade them away for quality talent before Week 14.


Against the Run / Against the Pass
Examining the 2006 Schedule using an opponent's record from the prior year gives you a reasonable idea of schedule difficulty. Sure, it’s far from perfect, still it offers you a "vaguely right" approach.

Ideally, for Fantasy Football purposes, we'd like to objectively segment defensive team pass and rush performance. Then, everything else being equal, forecast passing and rushing using last year's data. The problem is, in going from last year to this year, everything else isn't equal.

If you segment last year’s defensive pass and defensive rush performance and follow it blindly, you face the very real risk of being "precisely wrong." All that being said, year-to-year pass/rush data does offer a modest level of predictive accuracy. Given that, next up I offer up a few more observations.

* In this space in 2004, I identified the Colts as the team having the easiest pass defense schedule. I said, “Peyton Manning owners could really be loving life if this data holds up.” Well, Peyton Manning took full advantage and broke many of Dan Marino’s single-season records. Guess what? This season, the Colts again have the distinction of facing the easiest pass defense schedule in the entire NFL. Peyton Manning owners are you listening? On paper it looks like another ultra-elite Fantasy season for Manning. Wow!

* Presumably it’s DeShaun Foster or perhaps rookie DeAngelo Williams, but regardless of who it is, the RB that gets the bulk of carries in Carolina this year could turn out to be very special. The Panthers have one of the easiest schedules when it comes to opposing run defense. On the flip side, they face decent pass defenses. Again more good news for Foster and Williams as that plays right into Coach John Fox’s offensive scheme –- run the ball. 

* Seattle arguably had the best rushing attack in the NFL last year. In 2006, the rich could get richer. According to last year's data, Shaun Alexander and the Seahawks face the softest run defense schedule in the entire NFL.

* If Arizona head Coach Denny Green can keep his offense on track and build from last year’s success, Kurt Warner, Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald could put up huge numbers in 2006. The Cardinals face the second easiest pass defense in the entire NFL. Add Edge James into the backfield and things look very promising. If Warner gets hurt and rookie QB Matt Leinart is forced to step in late, he could be a huge factor -- the Cardinals face the 49ers in Week 16!


* We all know the Browns want to run the ball. But on paper they face the most difficult NFL run defense schedule in 2006. Making matters worse for Fantasy managers holding Cleveland RBs, Weeks 13 to 16 look particularly hard for the Browns. All this could make veteran WR Joe Jurevicius a decent late round gamble as the Browns may be forced to pass more than they would like.

* Using last year's data and this year's schedule, the Bengals, Browns, Raiders, Jets and Texans may have the biggest challenge running the ball. While prior year rush defense offers some forecasting validity, obviously don't count out Rudi Johnson. He’s done reasonably well against rugged defensive schedules before.

* Last year's data suggests the Seahawks, Chiefs and Rams have an easy 2006 schedule when it comes to passing. Not far behind, the Cowboys. In turn, Drew Bledsoe could once again make for an excellent late round value pick, especially now that he has Terrell Owens as a go-to target.

* Brad Johnson isn't going to be catching any breaks early this season due to an easy schedule. Using 2005 stats, the Vikings, will be facing the second-best cumulative pass defense this year. Likewise, based on schedule, Brett Favre and the Packers will also have their work cut out for them moving the ball in the air.

* Mike Martz, the Lions’ new offensive coordinator, better be as good as he thinks he is. On paper, Lion newcomers (Martz, QBs Jon Kitna and Josh McCown) will be facing the best cumulative pass defense this year in the NFL.

* Aaron Brooks has a long history of breaking Fantasy manager’s hearts, but he could finally live up to expectations this year. First, he’s flying under the radar as most have soured on him. Second, he’s surrounded by four talented wide receivers including Randy Moss. Third, the Raiders face one of the easiest pass defense schedules in the league this year. In fact, on paper, only the Colts and Cardinals have an easier schedule against the pass.

* Larry Johnson managers should be happy about KC’s schedule. The Chiefs’ opposing rush defense is among the easiest 20 percent in the NFL. The fact KC plays against the Raiders in critical Week 16 doesn’t hurt those managers trying to nail down a championship that weekend. Last year Johnson gained 148-yards rushing and scored three TDs on only 31 rushing attempts against Oakland.


Table II– Using 2005 Data to Estimate 2006 Pass/Run Schedule Difficulty

Next, we substitute opponent name with their defensive rank in the 2006 schedule. To complete the "Hot Spots" chart, we color-code the areas of opportunity in green and flag the more difficult areas in red.

As you examine the "Hot Spot" chart in Table IV, keep in mind the larger the number, the easier the opponent's defense. I like to think of the "Hot Spots" as a roadmap -- I use it to steer away from the "red" and into the "green."

Table IV
2006 NFL Schedule
Exclusive 4for4.com “Hot Spots”

"Hot Spot" observations from Greg Alan. ...


* In what can only be described as a Fantasy gift from the NFL, the Bears’ schedule looks like Fantasy gold. In Week 4 they face a reasonably challenging Seahawks defense. But, before or after that, the Bears never play a 4for4.com Top-8 ranked defensive team the entire regular season! No other NFL team is this fortunate. The trick is loading up on Bears running backs and not over paying. As a Fantasy manager make sure your team takes full advantage here. This truly is a scheduling oddity.

* The Rams have had a good offense for years. Even without Dick Vermeil, an MVP-like Warner and a youthful Marshall Faulk, they should be able to move the ball this year. However, be careful late in the season. In Week 14 they play the Bears. In Week 16, they battle the Redskins. If your team is loaded up with Rams you could be in big trouble come Fantasy playoff time.

* The Jaguars’ offense faces a very difficult schedule of the first month of the season. Without Jimmy Smith (retired) at wide receiver the road gets even more difficult. On the plus side, Jacksonville players may be highly undervalued come Week 5. And, that’s exactly the time you might won’t to buy low! In the next five games they’ll get to play the Texans twice, the Jets once and the Titans once. And, in critical Week 15 they’ll face the Titans yet again. The wise owners will leverage this scheduling imbalance.

* In a similar fashion, the Vikings’ offense could really struggled early in the year. The team opens the season against Washington, Carolina and the Bears. That might be the hardest three-game window any offense will face this year. After three games with little Fantasy production, owners with key Viking players may panic. If they do, it’s your chance to clean up and make some great value moves in the process.

* A healthy Donovan McNabb should come out of the gate strong in 2006. The Eagles face the Texans, Packers and 49ers in the first month of the season. On paper, it doesn’t get an easier. However, beware -- Weeks 12, 13 and 14 -- the Eagles’ offense is likely going to hit a brick wall when they face the Colts, Panthers and Redskins -- all three of those defensive teams are ranked in the top 5 according to 4for4.com’s early 2006 season review.

* If Cadillac Williams is ripping up the league by midseason and you can get tons of value for him, trade him. Come your Fantasy Playoffs, the Bucs’ offense won't be doing you any favors. Tampa faces the Steelers in Week 13 and the Bears potentially dominating defense in Week 15.

* Overall, the Redskins’ offense might not set the world on fire this year. But, check out Washington’s schedule when it really counts. ... In Weeks 15 and 16. The Skins face the Saints and Rams. It doesn't take much imagination to see how a healthy Clinton Portis could be ramping up late in the season and helping you win your playoffs.

* The Steelers’ offense will face a difficult schedule during Fantasy playoff time. In Week 15 they get Carolina and the following week the Ravens.

* If Week 16 is your Super Bowl, be sure you have a piece of the Cardinals, Colts and Chiefs. Aside from having awesome looking offenses this year, they all face three of the worst defensive teams in the NFL -- the 49ers, Texans and Raiders – come Week 16. For FFTOC-style Fantasy Football managers, it doesn’t get any better than this.

* Over the last four weeks of the season the Broncos do not face a single team ranked among 4for4.com's Top-15 defensive units. Once again, you’ll want to have Denver running backs available for your final push. 

* Also, the same can be said for the Vikings. In the last month of the regular season the best defense they’ll face is the Lions – a team 4for4.com ranks 24th best (out of 32). Nice!

As you can see, there's almost no end to how you can leverage "Hot Spots" to increase your odds of winning. Some of my favorite ways are listed in Table V.

Don’t Ignore Your Team Defense

Next, I’d like to offer some material to help you with your team defense starts. With a little planning you can gain a huge edge, even if you don’t draft an elite NFL defense.

I can’t say this enough: if you want an edge, start planning out what team defenses you should start each week. This will help you during your draft and during the long NFL season.

So why don’t more FF managers plan out which team defenses to use?

Answer: It can often be a very time consuming task when done from scratch. That’s why 4for4.com created Tables VI and VII. By consulting these charts, you can quickly gain insights.

For example, most agree the Bears look to have an excellent defense. But you might not want to start them in Week 4 against the high-powered Seahawks’ offense. So, if you draft the Bears as your No. 1 defense, you’d like your No. 2 defense to have a decent matchup in Week 4. In this case you might take the Chiefs as a companion defense to the Bears -- in Week 4 KC gets to tee off against the lowly 49ers offense.

Combination Platter

Team combinations are my favorite way to use the 4for4.com Team Defense Hot Spots.

Example: I want two team defenses that will help get me off to a great start. However, I don’t want to pay dearly for my defensive teams (e.g. Bears).

With that goal in mind, after a few minutes consulting Table VI, I quickly see how combining the Patriots and Vikings will give me four exceptionally attractive starts over the first four weeks of the NFL season! In fact, by combining those middle-tier defensive teams, I actually have a stronger early season defensive roster than the manager that paid a heavy price for the Bears. Plus, by owning the Pats’ and Vikings’ defense, I now look to have a slam dunk matchup in 10 of the 17 weeks -- not bad at all.

Here’s another tip -- to fully optimize your team defense, always examine teams on your roster and on the waiver wire as well when developing your week-to-week look ahead plan.
 

Table VI: 4for4.com Team Defense "Hot Spots"