DFS Tournament Three and Out Week 10

DFS Tournament Three And Out Week 10

By Bob Harris

Week 10 is upon and I’m in a receiving mood. As in wide receiving. Okay. More like wide receivers. There are three that hit me in the feels based on price and match. And one who doesn’t. It's the DFS Tournament Three and Out. Let's make some money!

I'm In:

DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Tennessee Titans ($6,000 on DraftKings; $7,100 on FanDuel)
As SI.com's Jennifer Piacenti asked: "Did you see what C.J. Stroud and Tank Dell did to this Buccaneers secondary last week?" I did. ... I also saw what Nuk has done in his two games with Will Levis as his triggerman: In addition to drawing 17 targets, he posted his first career game with 100 yards and three touchdowns against the Falcons. In this one, Hopkins is likely to draw shadow coverage from Bucs CB Carlton Davis III. As ESPN's Mike Clay notes, Davis has shadowed twice this season, including against Justin Jefferson on 33 of his 34 perimeter routes in Week 1 and against Stefon Diggs on 17 of his 20 perimeter routes in Week 8. Jefferson (9-150-0 receiving line on 12 targets) had a big game, though only half of that damage was against Davis. Diggs posted a modest 9-70-0 line on 12 targets, with 3-39-0 coming on four targets against Davis. More broadly, over the last four weeks, the Bucs have allowed five touchdown catches and the second-most fantasy points to opposing perimeter receivers. Feel free to stack with Levis here because he's priced right ($5,100 on DraftKings; $6,800 on FanDuel) and again; I did see what happened to the Buccaneers last week.

Calvin Ridley, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars ($5,600 on DraftKings; $6,700 on FanDuel)
I know what you're thinking: Why Ridley? Or perhaps more to the point, why not Christian Kirk? After all, as The Sporting News' Sloan Piva noted, across Jacksonville's six games between Weeks 2 and 7, Kirk averaged 17.5 DraftKings points. Week 8, but the Niners have allowed three touchdown catches and the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing slot receivers in the last four weeks. And the truth is, I'm fine going with Kirk, whose price ($6,000 on DraftKings; $6,700 on FanDuel) is in the same range, if you prefer him. So why would I go with Ridley? I feel like he's due. Before the bye week, Ridley caught 6-of-10 targets for 83 yards against the Steelers. As NBC Sports' Lawrence Jackson Jr. notes, those 10 targets were the most Ridley has seen since Week 1. And while Ridley has scored only two touchdowns this season, the 49ers have given up at least one touchdown to a receiver in three of their last four games. And Ridley has been inches from scoring on a number of occasions. Jackson went on to explain the Niners' defensive strength is in the front seven as opposed to the back end. This is true. Four players have put up more than 100 receiving yards in a game against San Francisco this season; they have allowed eight players to catch a touchdown pass against them this season; two players have hauled in more than one touchdown pass against the Niners this season. Overall, they have surrendered the third-most fantasy points to the position, as well as the 12th most to the perimeter (and 16th most to the slot). With an over/under of 46.5, this is a game I want to be in on (see below).

Brandon Aiyuk, WR, San Francisco 49ers ($7,100 on DraftKings; $7,800 on FanDuel)
As SI.com's Michael Fabiano noted this week, Aiyuk's numbers haven't been great in recent weeks. Still, I'm interested in stacking this game (see above) and the matchup sets up well for him. The Jaguars have been awful against perimeter receivers, allowing the second-most points to the position including 77 receptions and nine touchdowns. Jacksonville has allowed five receivers to reach 19 fantasy points this season, and all were primarily boundary receivers. Beyond that, through eight games, Aiyuk has paced the team in catches, targets, yards and explosive plays in the air. And, as SBNation's Rohan Chakravarthi points out, while his 51 targets rank 38th in the NFL, Aiyuk's 620 receiving yards currently sits at 11th in the NFL (and that's with the wideout missing a game this season as well). Looking at a per-game average, Aiyuk's 88.7 receiving yards a contest ranks ninth in the NFL, ahead of players like Cincinnati's Ja'Marr Chase, Los Angeles's Cooper Kupp and Kansas City's Travis Kelce. This is due a 14.6-yard average depth of target mark, which means that Aiyuk has consistently been targeted downfield in 2023, hence the 13 explosive plays (20-plus yards) he's created, which ranks eighth in the NFL. Aiyuk also offers yards after the catch, as indicated by his 17.7 yards per catch average, which ranks fifth in the NFL behind New Orleans's Rashid Shaheed, Houston's Noah Brown, Detroit's Josh Reynolds and Green Bay's Christian Watson, all seen as pure deep threats. In fact, Aiyuk accounts for 42.37 percent of the Niners' total air yards, which also ranks fifth in the NFL. The only thing missing? Touchdowns. Aiyuk only has two. Positive regression should be coming. Through eight games, the 49ers have been one of the more consistent teams in terms of getting to the red zone, with four opportunities per game. Per Chakravarthi, the 49ers have scored 21 touchdowns in the red zone on 32 attempts, with their 65.63 percent success rate ranking fifth in the NFL. Aiyuk's turn will come.

I'm Out:

Amari Cooper, WR, Cleveland Browns ($6,100 on DraftKings; $7,100 on FanDuel)
Cooper's success in the receiving game last Sunday played an important role in the Browns' offensive success against the Cardinals. Cooper scored their first touchdown on an 11-yard pass from Deshaun Watson that was deflected off the helmet of a Cardinals' defender. Cooper finished Sunday's game with 139 yards on five targets and one touchdown. He had a 59-yard reception in the first quarter, and another 49-yard reception in the fourth that set the Browns up for a touchdown. Sunday marked Cooper's 33rd career game surpassing 100-receiving yards, and his third this season. Cooper's 139 yards was also his highest yardage total with the Browns, and the most since Week 1 of 2021. ... So he's been great! Meanwhile, despite having faced the second-most WR targets, Clay notes the Ravens have allowed the eighth-fewest points to the position (third fewest over the past four weeks). Wideouts are averaging 5.9 yards per target and 10.1 yards per reception against them, both of which are lowest in the league. Only three receivers have reached 17 fantasy points against the Ravens (Tee Higgins, George Pickens and Amon-Ra St. Brown) and the likes of Chase, Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, Hopkins and Cooper himself were held to single digits. More broadly speaking, the Ravens lead the NFL in fewest points allowed (13.8 per game), Baltimore's best mark in that category in the first nine weeks of a season since its historic 2000 defense. I'll be looking for other avenues.