Alvin Kamara 2023 Outlook
It was not finalized as of this writing, but Kamara was expected to be suspended for the first six games of the 2023 season for violating the NFL’s personal conduct policy. Kamara was arrested in February 2022 during Pro Bowl week in Las Vegas and later indicted on felony battery charges. Any decision to draft Kamara in fantasy should come with the understanding that he’s widely expected to eat up space on the bench for the first month-plus. Speaking of Pro Bowl week, Kamara’s production dipped in 2022 and he missed out on a Pro Bowl nod for the first time in his six-year NFL career. His four total touchdowns marked a career low, a far cry from his league-leading 21 just two years prior. Kamara is still a viable flex option, especially in PPR leagues, as you can still count on an extra three or four fantasy points per game just from his pass-catching prowess. The addition of Derek Carr at quarterback may boost Kamara’s targets, as he’s known for having a high check-down rate.
Alvin Kamara 2022 Outlook
While it's true Kamara remains the Saints' most dangerous weapon, capable of hitting a home run from anywhere on the field, the big curiosity is what type of offense New Orleans will run without Sean Payton. Fortunately, whether it's run- or pass-heavy, Kamara will have a role. Remember, he averaged 102.8 total yards per game last year, his third in five seasons with a triple-digit mean. He also blew away his career-high with 18.5 carries per game. That part stings a little bit given how prolific he was as a pass-catcher. You shouldn't be surprised to learn Kamara registered a career-low 5.2 targets per game in 2021 (despite being on pace for 90 targets and 68 catches through Jameis Winston's first six starts). The fact he was productive even without his usual receiving role is encouraging as are the totals with Winston returning. But there's another issue we'll need to watch. Kamara was arrested on a battery charge in Las Vegas after being accused of injuring someone in a brawl on the eve of the Pro Bowl. A hearing in Kamara's case was set for August 1 and any league discipline could be pushed into 2023 if the league waits for the legal process to conclude before beginning their own disciplinary process. You'll want to monitor this situation before investing.
Alvin Kamara 2021 Outlook
With Drew Brees retiring, the Saints' offense is expected to take a hit. That doesn't mean Kamara's fantasy value will take one, too. In fact, it may be quite the opposite. Kamara, who has been to the Pro Bowl in each of his first four seasons and had a six-touchdown game last season, will likely be asked to step up and do even more as the lead back. ... Kamara's elusiveness has been a huge reason for his success -- and he was plenty successful last season. Kamara led all running backs with 377 fantasy points, 40 more than the runner up, Dalvin Cook. Kamara averaged 25.2 fantasy points per game and scored 20-plus fantasy points in nine of his 15 games. This despite averaging just 14 fantasy points in the four games Taysom Hill started at QB last season (he had just 16 targets and 10 catches in that four game span). With reports pointing to Jameis Winston as the likely starter this season, the receiving numbers should normalize. And by normalize, we mean remain high. As FantasyPros notes, over the last 10 years, there have been just 13 occasions where a running back has caught more than 80 passes in a season. Kamara has accounted for four of them.
