Dynamic VBD Overview
FootballDiehards.com has been a long standing supporter of value-based drafting. Several years ago, people like Rob Zarzycki promoted an extension to VBD called Dynamic VBD. This is a very interesting strategy that applies the VBD concept yet modifies the “X” numbers of player values during the draft.
In order to allow you to understand and implement a value-based draft methodology for your draft, we have created a DVBD worksheet specifically for your draft position and the number of owners in your draft. The goal is to be able to follow the worksheet during the course of your draft so you can make adjustments quickly and easily.
Unfortunately, drafting a fantasy football team real-time and the term “quickly and easily” may not be that compatible. The worksheet we created will take some time to become familiar with, but we believe it is a good first cut and could help you implement this strategy.
A cheat sheet that has forecasted fantasy values is the only outside information you need to use this tool. You can get this by using our web-based cheat sheet at CS.FootballDiehards.com. Now we can proceed to the worksheet creator located at the following web address:
Dynamic VBD Worksheet Creator:
https://www.footballdiehards.com/dvbd/DynamicVBD.cfm
There are a few initial conditions that you will need to input:
A) Your draft position
B) Total number of managers in your league
C) League type - regular or point per reception
D) Starting lineup requirements
E) Flex position, if any
Once you have filled these out, the software will create your specific DVBD worksheet. At this point, you should print out the work sheet to accompany you to your draft along with the directions on how to use it.
Essentially the worksheet follows your draft and attempts to predict how many players at each skill position will be taken between your current pick and your upcoming pick. With this information and your league setup, the worksheet allows you to recalculate the value of the top players at each skill position currently available.
Understanding the Worksheet
Now this is a tough one. Let me first apologize for the 1040 like nuances. But hopefully once we go through how it works and you get a feel for it, you will realize the value it gives you.
The “B” Number
The “B” number is basically 1.5 times the number of starters at each skill position. This number also includes one half of a point for the flex. The number basically tells you how many “rounds” deep you need to go to determine your new scoring value for each skill position.
The “B” numbers are located at the very top of the worksheet table just to the right of each skill position column after you have filled out the core requirements. In this case, the quarterback B number is 1.5, the running back B number is 3.75, etc. Some people round off the B number to the nearest .5 and certainly these numbers can be adjusted to your liking the more you get familiar with this drafting strategy.
The first step of your draft is to count the number of players taken at each skill position leading up to your first round pick. You place these numbers on Line 2. Line 1 shows how many players are typically being taken at each skill position. The worksheet keeps track of any deviation and then adjusts the following rounds estimates according to the deviation.
Now you need to fill in line 3 by performing the action in the note column. In this case you take line 1 and subtract line 2 from it. This gives you the adjustment of the estimated skill position players taken from the actual players taken.
Now you fill in line 5 by adding line 3 and line 4. Now you have your estimated players taken at each skill position from your current draft spot to your next selection. You also need to copy the B numbers down from the top of the worksheet. As you get use to this method you may want to use your own B numbers and not just copy them down.
(After completing Line 5)
Now we're ready to fill in the all-important line 6. First we figure out the “count.” The B variable tells us how many skill positions numbers we add up. For the quarterback, the B number is 1.5. This means we need to go one and a half rounds of summing. For the quarterbacks this would sum line 5 which is 0 plus 1/2 of line 9 which is 1.5. So we place 1.5 in the first box on line 6 under the quarterbacks.
For running backs we need to sum the first 3 plus 3/4 of the fourth one. This would be 5 + 5 + 4 + (¾*6). ¾ multiplied by 6 gives us 18/4 or 4.5. You could work in decimals and multiply 6 by .75 which will yield the same 4.5 result. Using that value back in the original formula, 5+5+4+4.5 gives us a total of 18.5. We place in the box on Line 6 under the running back column.
For the wide receivers we need to go 5 1/4 rounds giving us 2 + 9 + 2 + 7 + 3 + 1.5 equaling 24.5 to be placed on Line 6 under the wide receiver column.
Continuing on with the tight ends, we have one and a half rounds which gives us 0 + (½*0) equaling zero.
The first three counts ended up non-integer and I chose to round down so I'm going to use 1 for quarterbacks, 18 for running backs and 24 for wide receivers.
The rule according to Rob Zarzycki is that you start counting the first player ranked that has not been taken. Since the quarterback number is one, we essentially count Drew Brees which means there is no differential in scoring value hence the scoring value for quarterbacks is zero.
On the running backs we start counting at Tomlinson as one and the 18th running back is Ray Rice from Baltimore. So the difference in scoring value is 293-205 yielding 88. The 88 goes in the value column on line 6 under running.
On the wide receivers we start counting at Reggie Wayne and the 24th player is Moss for Washington. The scoring value difference is 260-172 yielding also 88. This number goes in the value column on line 6 under wide receivers.
On to the tight ends. Not shown in the figure, we start with the top tight end in which is Witten with a fantasy scoring value of 244. We count one spot down to Cooley with a fantasy scoring value of 211 yielding 33 points and which will go in line 6 under the tight in column.
Now we have our dynamic value-based drafting numbers for our first pick of the draft. And we actually have a tie, with the system telling us we can either take a running back or a wide receiver since both values are 88. Personally I would choose a running back because typically there seems to be fewer running backs available in drafts, so we will be drafting LaDainian Tomlinson with pick one.
Now that we have chosen a running back with our first round pick would need to upgrade the B numbers for the next round on line 10. The only B number that needs to be updated is for running backs, which needs to be reduced by one and the new value is 2.75. The rest of the skill positions B numbers are just copied from line 5.
Our first round is complete!
Our next step is to sip beer and wait until you are on the clock again. In this example, that wait is six picks. After pick 2.3 has been taken we now need to fill in Line 7 of the worksheet, like we did on Line 2. We sum the number of players that were taken at each skill position between picks 1.9 through 2.3 inclusively. Don’t forget to include your own selection at 1.9 which was a running back.
Now we need to make adjustments (Line 8) of actual players taken from what the estimates were on Line 5. So fill in Line 9 using the note which is Line 5 minus Line 7.
Line 9 shows us the difference of what the worksheet thought was going to happen between our two picks from what actually happened in our draft. As the rounds progress, if these differences get too large or should I say too “out of whack”, then most likely it is time to move on to the second phase of your draft strategy to finish out your draft. The VBD and DVBD are designed to help you through the early rounds of your draft.
Also, when your B numbers get close to one-half and one across the board, this is a sign that the DVBD has come to end for its usefulness and you need to go to your next line of strategy.
Now we simply add Line 8 and Line 9 together and place it in the appropriate boxes on Line 10. At this point we can repeat the process from Line 6 starting at Line 11.
Our testing shows that the DVBD worksheet tends to be useful through the first 10 or so rounds of a 12-team draft. Remember, it is most useful for drafting your starters and primary depth. After that point, you will likely no longer be using this tool to help the rest of your draft.
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