Backaholica 2020

The Ultimate Guide to Fantasy Football’s Most Important Position

For many years, running backs were the unquestioned kings of fantasy football. The first round was all about grabbing the best running back available. It wasn’t a matter of whether or not the first pick for a fantasy manager would be a running back – it was just a matter of which one.

Then, as things are known to do, circumstances changed. With the advent of the new CBA in 2011, the running back position began to become devalued in the NFL. In both 2013 and 2014, not a single running back was drafted in the first round.

Things weren’t as drastic in fantasy leagues, but as more early-round fantasy backs busted and pass-catchers like Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Antonio Brown and New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski had massive years, the pendulum swung toward receivers. In both 2014 and 2015, just six of the first 12 picks in fantasy drafts were running backs.

Some fantasy managers threw up their hands and bailed on the position altogether – it was right around this time that the “Zero RB” theory picked up steam among fantasy enthusiasts.

However, what goes around comes around, and over the past few years (as young runners like Saquon Barkley of the New York Giants and Christian McCaffrey of the Carolina Panthers exploded into stardom), that pendulum has swung back to backs. Per Fantasy Football Calculator, in 2018 nine of the first 12 picks on average in fantasy drafts were running backs. So far this year, it’s eight backs.

But why exactly is that? Why do so many fantasy managers place such a premium on having a stacked backfield? And which running backs are those same fantasy managers targeting (and avoiding) in 2020?

POSITIONAL SCARCITY

In each of the past three years, the highest-scoring fantasy running back (in PPR leagues) has outscored the No. 1 wide receiver by a sizable margin. In fact, despite a record-setting season from Michael Thomas of the New Orleans Saints in 2019, Thomas didn’t post enough fantasy points to out-score any of the last three top backs.

However, fantasy managers who believe that actually means something are missing an important point. Success in fantasy football isn’t about drafting the players who score the most points. It’s about rostering the players who score the most points relative to other options at the same position.

In a nutshell, positional scarcity is determined by figuring out the difference in production between the No. 1 weekly starter and the last one at each position. And once you crunch the numbers, it doesn’t take long to see that the drop-off at running back is more pronounced than at wide receiver.

Over that same three-year sample size (2017 to 2019), the No. 1 running back in fantasy football outscored the No. 24 back by an average of 15.1 PPR fantasy points per game. At wide receiver, the drop-off from the No. 1 wide receiver to the No. 36 wide receiver is 11.1 PPR fantasy points per game.

Yes, that’s a small sample size and something of an oversimplification. But having the “worst” weekly starter at running back could cost you four points a game relative to the “worst” wide receiver – a dip of almost 27 percent.

At the top, the drop is that much more pronounced. Since 2017, the No. 1 running back has scored an average of 11.8 more PPR fantasy points per game than the No. 12 running back. At wide receiver, the decrease from No. 1 to No. 12 is just 6.3 PPR fantasy points.

That’s admittedly skewed a bit by McCaffrey’s monster 2019 season (a season that skewed quite a few fantasy managers), but if you have the “worst” RB1 in your league you’ll lose 5.5 more fantasy points per game (relative to the top dog at the position) than if you have the “worst” WR1.

That’s a plummet of almost a touchdown a game – every game. Forty-seven percent.

Again, there’s more to positional scarcity than that – but long story short, it’s more important to roster an elite running back than an elite wide receiver.

Never mind the pitfalls of taking a quarterback too early – but that’s a story for another day.

WORKHORSES AND UNICORNS

Positional scarcity isn’t the only reason why having a solid stable of backs in so important. In fantasy football, a player is only as good as the opportunities he gets. And at running back, not as many running backs are getting as many opportunities with the ball in their hands as they used to.

There was admittedly a mini-renaissance in this regard at the running back position in 2019 – there were nine backs a year ago who had over 300 touches for the season, and six backs who averaged at least 17 carries a game on the ground. But as more and more NFL teams have implemented pass-heavy attacks and/or utilized secondary running backs with more regularity, the number of “workhorse” backs have declined.

All the way back in the glory days of 2010, the number of running backs who piled up over 300 touches and/or carried the rock at least 17 times per contest both ranked in the double digits. The following season, there were eight of each. In 2012, it was back to 10, and then nine in 2013.

But since 2014, there has been all of one season in which more than seven running backs in the entire NFL touched the ball more than 300 times – last season. There were only two seasons (2017 and 2019) where half a dozen tailbacks had 17 carries a game on average.

It’s gotten better as a whole over the past four years, but 2018 was a real low spot in this regard – just five running backs touched the ball 300 times, and only one (Ezekiel Elliott of the Dallas Cowboys) averaged at least 17 carries a game.

Meanwhile, the same pass-wacky NFL that has resulted in fewer workhorse running backs has meant more work for wide receivers.

Once more, the 2019 season was a trend-bucker, Thomas had a massive year, but he was one of just four wideouts who had 100 or more receptions – after twice as many hit that benchmark two seasons ago.

But the number of receivers who rack up catches (and targets) with regularity has risen the past decade. Back in 2010, just two pass-catchers (Roddy White and Reggie Wayne) caught 100 balls. Only four receivers were targeted 150 times.

By 2018, that number of triple-digit reception options had quadrupled. And over the past five seasons, an average of over 15 wideouts a year were targeted at least eight times a game.

(Over)Simply put, it’s easier to find a pass-catcher with elite potential than a running back with the same. And that makes an early fantasy investment in the backfield all the wiser.

BUST RATE

One of the arguments that you’ll often hear made by “Zero RB” proponents is that it’s safer to take wide receivers early because more high-end running backs bust in a given year. It’s not completely without merit – it can’t really be denied that running backs (as a position) are more prone to injuries than wide receivers, and there have been years when the “bust rate” at running back was substantially higher than at wide receiver.

However, as Michael Salfino wrote at the The Athletic last November, a five-year study of bust rates at 4for4.com showed that as a whole, the overall bust rates over a five-year span from 2014-2018 aren’t much different between the two positions.

“We will be defining a “bust” as a running back or wide receiver whose actual ranking at his position (not overall) is 12 or more spots lower than his positional ADP, which is provided by FantasyPros,” Salfino said. “According to 4For4, the bust rate on average (2014-2018) inside the top-15 drafted positional picks is 37.3 percent of running backs and 36 percent of wide receivers. The worst year for both was 2016, when nearly 50 percent of both positions’ top 15 busted. Zero RB principles (high RB bust rates) ruled in 2015 and 2018. A Zero WR principle (high WR bust rates) would have been wisest in 2014.”

There’s admittedly variance here from season to season – years where more running backs face plant and ones where it’s the wideouts who come up short. But from a big-picture perspective, in the long-term running backs aren’t that much more likely to bust in a given season than wide receivers.

We’ve established that the difference between the best RB1 and worst RB1 (or RB2) is much more pronounced than at wide receiver. We know that the number of “workhorse” running backs (and the opportunity for production that comes with that status) isn’t what it used to be. And we know that all in all, there isn’t a huge gap between the bust rate at running back as opposed to their pass-catching counterparts.

In other words (about 1,900 of them, to be precise), we’ve laid out that having the right starters at the running back spot can make all the difference in the world.

Now if only we knew who the right running backs were in 2020.

That rather feels like a segue – after a brief aside.

ROGUES GALLERY

UNDERVALUED RB (ADP Listed in Parentheses)

Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys (RB6)
Yes, that’s right – the same Ezekiel Elliott I just listed as a candidate to be drafted first overall is presently being drafted outside the top 5 at his position.

That’s nuts.

In four seasons in the NFL, Elliott has led the league in rushing twice. He’s never averaged less than 110 total yards a game. The only season in which he has missed more than a single game was during his six-game suspension in 2017. He’s had at least 14 touchdowns in a season twice and has made three Pro Bowls. There isn’t a more bust-proof RB1 in the game.

Kenyan Drake, Arizona Cardinals (RB7)
Drake was a revelation for the Redbirds after joining the team in midseason last year. Some fantasy pundits, including Heath Cummings of CBS Sports, believe that Drake’s first full year in the desert could portend elevation to elite fantasy status in the backfield.

“It’s an easy breakout call,” Cummings wrote, “when someone is projected for the best season of their career and a top-10 finish. I mean, you could just double what he did last year in Arizona. That’s 1,628 yards, 56 catches, 16 touchdowns, and 314.8 PPR Fantasy points. Only Christian McCaffrey, Ezekiel Elliott, and Aaron Jones were better last year.”

Chris Carson, Seattle Seahawks (RB20)
Carson is coming back from a significant hip injury – significant enough that the Seahawks added Carlos Hyde in free agency. But according to reports, Hyde’s arrival means more about the status of Rashaad Penny’s knee than Carson’s status as Seattle’s lead back.

Carson is coming off a season in which he piled up nearly 1,500 total yards, averaged 4.4 yards per carry, scored nine total touchdowns and finished inside RB1 territory despite missing the season’s last game. Carson’s health is a valid question mark, but the fourth-year pro has RB1 upside and a low-end RB2 asking price.

Raheem Mostert, San Francisco 49ers (RB24)
From Week 12 on last year, Mostert was a top-10 fantasy option in PPR leagues. Dalton Del Don of Yahoo Sports isn’t ruling out a similarly productive 2020 campaign.

“Raheem ‘Must-Start’ just led the NFL in YPC while approaching a 25-touchdown pace over a half season,” he said, “and remains in the same terrific situation (SF had the second-most red-zone rush attempts last season and provided him the most yards before contact among RBs) only with less competition for touches now.”

OVERVALUED RB (ADP Listed in Parentheses)

Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings (RB3)

This isn’t intended as a slam on Cook, who blew up for a top-5 finish in PPR leagues last year. But between his injury history and contract impasse, Yahoo’s Scott Pianowski has real concerns about Cook’s sky-high asking price in 2020.

“Between the holdout angle and the injury risk, I’d prefer not to spend the big draft capital for Cook,” he said. “Granted, this is professional football, everyone has some injury risk, and the sure things run out quickly. But Cook is a more reactive than proactive pick for me, not wanting to price in his breakout year and still worried about the medical and contract issues.”

Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns (RB10)

Chubb was fantastic for the Cleveland Browns in his second season. His 1,494 rushing yards for the season trailed only Derrick Henry of the Tennessee Titans, and Chubb finished the year eighth in PPR fantasy points among all running backs.

But once Kareem Hunt joined the Browns over the second half of the season, Chubb’s fantasy numbers took a noticeable hit. Over the first eight weeks of the year, Chubb was sixth in PPR fantasy points per game at the position. From Week 9 on (with Hunt in town) that dropped to RB23.

Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers (RB13)

Thanks to over 1,500 total yards and 19 touchdowns last year (tied for the NFL lead), Jones was fantasy’s runner-up at running back last year. But Sportsline’s Jacob Gibbs sees Jones as a prime candidate for significant regression in 2020.

“A large decrease in his touchdown totals isn’t the only thing Jones has to worry about in 2020,” Gibbs said. “Green Bay head coach Matt LaFleur had already shown a propensity for using multiple backs – affording Jones just a 56.6 percent snap rate when Jamaal Williams was healthy in 2019.”

SLEEPER RB (ADP Listed in Parentheses)

Cam Akers, Los Angeles Rams (RB28)

With Todd Gurley gone, Akers joins a Rams backfield that is equal parts unsettled and crowded. But according to Dr. Roto at Sports Illustrated, Akers has an excellent chance to distance himself from Malcolm Brown and Darrell Henderson and emerge as the No. 1 running back in Los Angeles.

“I am expecting about 12 rushes and 4-5 receptions per game from Akers as a rookie. The only downside is that he will most likely be removed at the goal line, so his value is much lower in standard formats than in PPR leagues,” he said. “Regardless, Sean McVay will have fun using Akers in multiple ways, and he should provide many terrific highlights for Rams fans.”

Phillip Lindsay, Denver Broncos (RB43)

It’s not that often that a back with two straight 1,000-yard seasons under his belt gets relegated to RB4 status in fantasy football. But that is Lindsay’s fate in 2020 after the Broncos signed Melvin Gordon in the offseason. Field Yates of ESPN cautions that it may be premature to throw dirt on Lindsay just yet.

“Lindsay feels like an odd choice for a sleeper given that he’s had back-to-back season of at least 1,000 rushing yards,” he said. “But is it that unreasonable to believe he has a chance to hold onto the sizable role he has carried thus far in Denver? While money can talk and Melvin Gordon is now making $8 million a year, I don’t view the talent gap between the two players as that wide.”


Gary Davenport is a Contributing Author and Associate Editor at Football Diehards and the 2019 FSWA Football Writer of the Year