Blue Rated Wideouts Week 10 2022

The volatile scoring nature of the wide receiver position may cause more start-sit headaches for fantasy managers than any other position, but when things go well wide receivers can post point totals capable of winning fantasy games.

How does one know which wide receivers are capable of posting those game-winning point totals? My player grading system (a full version of which can be found at TheFootballScientist.com) aims to identify these players via an overall/upside/downside approach. A player’s overall grade measures his likely performance, the downside the grade indicates how a player is apt to fare if things go poorly for him that week, and the upside grade measures the scoring ceiling of a player if things go well in a given contest.

This grading system also uses five color-coded categories: blue (indicating someone who can post elite point totals), green (a strong starter), yellow (a solid backup or a potential starter in bye weeks or deep leagues), orange (a desperation play), and red (someone who should not be started).

This means fantasy managers who are looking for big scoring potential at wide receiver should aim for someone who has a blue-rated upside grade (which is 90-100 in my system). This weekly article series will identify all the blue-rated upside wideouts in a given week and then provide details on a few of the unexpected candidates on this board. It will also detail the strength of the matchup each of these receivers is facing via a matchup points total of 1-100, with 100 being most favorable.

Week 10 wide receivers with blue-rated upside

Amari Cooper, Cleveland

There is a concern for Cooper in that he has a good chance of lining up against Kader Kohou, a Miami cornerback who has allowed a superb 4.7 yards per target (YPT) since Week 6 (per Pro Football Reference). Having noted this, the rest of the Dolphins secondary is not up to Kohou's coverage pace, especially Xavien Howard, who has allowed 8.7 since Week 6. All Cooper needs is a couple of favorable snaps away from Kohou to succeed, so be sure to place him into lineups this week.

Stefon Diggs, Buffalo

Diggs usually isn't on this list because he's an absolute must start every week, but there is the question mark about Josh Allen's injury status. If Allen is out and Case Keenum plays, Diggs' blue-rated upside path gets a lot harder to navigate. Having noted this, Allen looks like he will play, as the Bills did not elevate a practice squad player on Saturday, which indicates Buffalo's coaching staff believes Diggs is a go.

JuJu Smith-Schuster, Kansas City

The Jaguars have a couple of very strong cornerbacks right now, as Tyson Campbell and Darious Williams have posted strong coverage metrics in the past month, but Smith-Schuster will likely benefit from facing Tre Herndon in coverage. Herndon is filling in for the injury Shaquill Griffin and his coverage metrics show why he is a backup, as Herndon has allowed a ridiculously high 11.4 YPT on 10 targets since Week 6. Smith-Schuster should be able to hit a home run here and it gives him a very good chance to return to the 20+ point PPR range.

Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit

Let's close this out with a player who doesn't quite reach the blue-rated upside status but who has in the past. St. Brown has an 87.8 upside grade score, which is very strong, and it could due to injuries in the Bears secondary. Starting cornerback Kindle Vildor is out and Jaylon Johnson is questionable. Jaylon Jones and Kyler Gordon will be leaned upon heavily because of this but both of them have posted mediocre or worse coverage metrics of late. Add in Johnson's poor metrics (8.9 YPT since Week 6) and it means things will be bad even if Johnson play. That means fantasy managers should take the risk on St. Brown and get him into lineups.