Blue Rated Wideouts Week 10 2023

The volatile scoring nature of the wide receiver position may cause more start-sit headaches for fantasy managers than any other position, but when things go well wide receivers can post point totals capable of winning fantasy games.

How does one know which wide receivers are capable of posting those game-winning point totals? My player grading system (a full version of which can be found at TheFootballScientist.com) aims to identify these players via an overall/upside/downside approach. A player’s overall grade measures his likely performance, the downside the grade indicates how a player is apt to fare if things go poorly for him that week, and the upside grade measures the scoring ceiling of a player if things go well in a given contest.

This grading system also uses five color-coded categories: blue (indicating someone who can post elite point totals), green (a strong starter), yellow (a solid backup or a potential starter in bye weeks or deep leagues), orange (a desperation play), and red (someone who should not be started).

This means fantasy managers who are looking for big scoring potential at wide receiver should aim for someone who has a blue-rated upside grade (which is 90-100 in my system). This weekly article series will identify all the blue-rated upside wideouts in a given week and then provide details on a few of the unexpected candidates on this board. It will also detail the strength of the matchup each of these receivers is facing via a matchup points total of 1-100, with 100 being most favorable.

As was the case last week, a variety of factors has made for a somewhat limited volume of blue-rated prospects, an element that could make the value of the players on this list even greater than usual.

Week 10 wide receivers with blue-rated upside

 

Calvin Ridley, Jacksonville

Christian Kirk, Jacksonville

Many fantasy managers may have a hesitation to start a wide receiver versus the San Francisco defense, but the 49ers recent pass coverage metrics indicates that shouldn’t be the case. From Weeks 6-9, San Francisco cornerback Charvarius Ward allowed 17.0 PPR PPG, while Deommodore Lenoir gave up an 8.9-yards per target pace, and Isaiah Oliver allowed an 11.0 PPR PPG pace (all metrics per Stathead).

Add that to the 49ers ranking 28th in PPG allowed on vertical passes since Week 6, and it means Ridley and Kirk can be justified as starters this week.

Adam Thielen, Carolina

Thielen’s 7.9 PPR points last week is the lowest number of points that he has posted in a game since Week 1, but this week’s matchup against Bears cornerback Kyler Gordon should return Thielen back to normal, as Gordon has allowed 12.6 PPR PPG since Week 6. The Panthers could also move Thielen around to get lined up against Tyrique Stevenson, a matchup that could provide significant upside given that Stevenson has allowed 23.4 PPR PPG in that same span.

This is a case where you don’t want to overthink this. Thielen has been a very good fantasy WR this year and this matchup says he’ll get back there, so get him into lineups.

D.K. Metcalf, Seattle

Metcalf just had his worst week of the 2023 season, with only one catch for 50 yards in the embarrassing Week 9 loss at Baltimore.

This week should be much better for Metcalf since he is apt to see Washington cornerback Benjamin St-Juste in coverage. St-Juste has solid per pass coverage metrics since Week 6, but he has been targeted 38 times and thus is a magnet for opponent’s passing games. That’s why St-Juste has given up 21.3 PPR PPG and that makes Metcalf a strong WR2 at the very least.