Blue Rated Wideouts Week 17 2022

The volatile scoring nature of the wide receiver position may cause more start-sit headaches for fantasy managers than any other position, but when things go well wide receivers can post point totals capable of winning fantasy games.

How does one know which wide receivers are capable of posting those game-winning point totals? My player grading system (a full version of which can be found at TheFootballScientist.com) aims to identify these players via an overall/upside/downside approach. A player's overall grade measures his likely performance, the downside the grade indicates how a player is apt to fare if things go poorly for him that week, and the upside grade measures the scoring ceiling of a player if things go well in a given contest.

This grading system also uses five color-coded categories: blue (indicating someone who can post elite point totals), green (a strong starter), yellow (a solid backup or a potential starter in bye weeks or deep leagues), orange (a desperation play), and red (someone who should not be started).

This means fantasy managers who are looking for big scoring potential at wide receiver should aim for someone who has a blue-rated upside grade (which is 90-100 in my system). This weekly article series will identify all the blue-rated upside wideouts in a given week and then provide details on a few of the unexpected candidates on this board. It will also detail the strength of the matchup each of these receivers is facing via a matchup points total of 1-100, with 100 being most favorable.

Week 17 wide receivers with blue-rated upside

 

Ja'Marr Chase, Cincinnati

Tee Higgins, Cincinnati

Chase will be in every fantasy lineup and Higgins will be in many, but fantasy managers who are worried about potential subpar performances from either player can take solace in the coverage metrics of Bills starting cornerbacks Tre'Davious White and Dane Jackson. Over the past four weeks, White and Jackson have posted yards per target marks of 7.7 and 8.4 yards, respectively (per Pro Football Reference). A good showing in that metric is something below 6.0 yards and anything near or above the 7.5-8-yard range is mediocre. This indicates Chase and Higgins should both have very strong point totals in this matchup.

Mike Williams, LA Chargers

There is a very good chance that Williams will face off against Jalen Ramsey on a regular basis in this contest. Ramsey has been a shutdown cornerback in the past, but that hasn't been the case of late, as since Week 13 Ramsey has allowed a ridiculously high 10.4 YPT. To be fair, that's on a small sample size of ten targets, but it shows that Williams, one of the best gamebreakers when he hits his stride, could have one of his boom point totals here.

Adam Thielen, Minnesota

The Packers secondary has posted abysmal YPT marks over the past four weeks, as Jaire Alexander, Rasul Douglas, Adrian Amos, and Rudy Ford all have tallied 11.5-yard or higher marks in this category. With so much coverage attention being paid to Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson, Thielen should be able to get a favorable matchup that can deliver a big point total in a fantasy title game.