Curbing your Enthusiasm in Fantasy Football MFL10s

By Tod Burros

Enthusiasm is wonderful and often contagious. Sometimes it is the roar of the crowd pressing forward that motivates and other times it is our natural desire to get ahead of the pack and to find an edge that drives us further than we reasonably should. How do we temper our enthusiasm to ensure that we are putting ourselves in the best opportunity for success?

I did an article on using Warren Buffett's investment strategies in fantasy football. One of his key traits is that he is able to control his enthusiasm. Buying the right amount of stocks at the right price has helped him to be one of the richest men in the world. Therefore we also need to be aware of our own tendencies for enthusiasm as it relates to both following after the crowd's enthusiasm for one player as well as being careful about how much exposure we have to any one player in our portfolio of MFL10s.

The ADP market is constantly changing and reacting to player news. This is one way we can be over enthusiastic on players. That player we loved in the 11th round is now being drafted in the 6th round. All the news seems positive on him but is he still a value in the 6th round? We want to avoid what I call the Wiley Coyote syndrome when these sharp ADP moves hit

Let’s face it we all think we are very smart and so when news hits we think we know what is best

But sometimes that self-belief can lead to certain problems

It is so easy to get caught up with the pursuit of a player that we can leave reason and sound thinking behind and follow the crowd off the cliff where the smart drafter in this case pictured as the Road Runner stopping where reality of a players outcome stops and taunting us as we head off the cliff and into uncertainty. It is very similar in a way to trading. One of the things i always try and ascertain when trading is if the other person i am trading with either likes an individual player more than i do or even better wants to roster players from his favorite team. Are you so interested in getting one player that you are now passing on players who have both a better track record and just as good of an opportunity?

A great example of this right now is Marcus Mariota. He is a very good young player and his team has just gone out and added two key weapons. The consensus #1 rookie WR in Corey Davis and a Red Zone animal and quality receiver in Eric Decker. But take a look at this phenomenon in action as Mariota has passed not only Kirk Cousins but Cam Newton in ADP

Now i happen to like Mariota a lot but this is still a young team with a coaching staff who likes to ground and pound and an improving Defense where if they have the lead late in games they could go heavy run and have one of the better OL in the league to do so Has his value gone over the cliff? I think you can reasonably argue as much as you like Mariota that it is possible he has. We should constantly be reviewing ADP and the trend line of the risers and who else is available and "temper" our enthusiasm.

Going over the Cliff with exposure to one player
In a recent series of articles on MFL10s TJ Hernandez asked many of the top players what their max exposure to was on one player. For the most part it changes as it should by round drafted with most pro's not wanting more than 20-25 percent exposure to a player early 25 to 35 percent in mid rounds and maximum of about 45 percent on any player. With injuries a real issue in the NFL not watching our exposures to players and letting them get out of hand can be a problem therefore.
I have run into this myself this year. I loved the value of both Zach Ertz and Kyle Rudolph in drafts especially pre NFL draft. So I went happily along grabbing one or the other and sometimes both in drafts. I was reading one day about how TE has more injuries than most and the light bulb went off. I looked and sure enough I was near 40% ownership on each one which was 10-15 percent more than is probably best. But because I did check and noticed it I can adjust.

Conclusion

It is good to have passion but we should be more like the road runner able and willing to stop on a dime than Wiley who lets his enthusiasm get the best of him. Because if we don’t watch ourselves it could be us saying

You can find me on Twitter @TodfromPa. Say hello and tell me what you think. If you follow me I will follow you back. Hear my Run to Daylight Podcast on Blogtalkradio.com or Itunes. Good luck with your games!