Daily Fantasy Preview Week 1 2018

By Bobby Gomes

Week 1 stacks Preview

DraftKings releasing Week 1 pricing this early can be the equivalent to Christmas in July for most DFS players. Now that we have had a week to digest the salaries I wanted to dive in and breakdown the slate in terms of stacks. The pricing is interesting, DraftKings is always a little loose early on in their pricing algorithm to accommodate new players and allow a wider range of roster construction. With all the new money on the board Week 1 can be a great week if leveraged correctly.

*These are not my personal rankings just a guesstimation of where the public may go when stacking week 1.

Tom Brady (7,200) Rob Gronkowski (6,900) and/or Chris Hogan (6,000)
The name of the game is usage and Gronk should see a lot of it during Edelman's four week suspension. This situation is common knowledge to the fantasy community. Last season the Texans pass defense was 24th in DVOA and 31st in yards per attempt. With Edelman suspended and Brandin Cooks out of the picture, look for Hogan to assume the number one wideout role. With week one salaries being a little lax by Draftkings standards its pretty easy to fit this stack using Rex Burkhead who will be relatively popular as a replacement for Hogan or an add on is another way to go.

Drew Brees (6,800) Michael Thomas (7,800) and/or Alvin Kamara (8,500)
The Saints transitioned from a high flying passing offense to a run heavy attack in 2017, and Michael Thomas still managed to catch 104 passes. With ingram sidelined week one I’m expecting the Saints to lean more on the arm of Brees which should only benefit Thomas. The Buccaneers have added some talent on the D-line but the secondary is still one of the weakest units in the league. Kamara is also in the mix as he should definitely be a beneficiary of the sidelined Ingram. This is not a negative correlation due to Kamara’s usage in the passing game. The game itself is in the Superdome which is considered by some to be the Coors field of the NFL especially when Brees is letting it fly.

Deshaun Watson (6,700) Deandre Hopkins (8,300) and/or Will Fuller (5,100)
Deshaun Watson tore up the league during his rookie season. In the seven contest prior to his acl tear Watson averaged 24.1 DK points per game. Watson’s break out game came against the Patriots in New England so it's interesting that he will hit the reset button there. DeAndre Hopkins was the main benefactor in terms of targets but Will Fuller amassed seven touchdowns in four games alongside Watson. Fullers' numbers are definitely in for some negative regression, but I think he is a safe bet week one he will also probably be targeted a bit more due to the game script as this should be a shoot out.

Philip Rivers (6,400) Keenan Allen(7,500)
Allen has been a Chiefs killer throughout his career. Rivers loves to target Allen and the Chiefs lost Marcus Peters in the offseason and Eric Berry is returning from a Ruptured Achilles. Not only does Allen have a great matchup he should also see more usage with Hunter Henry being out for the season. Ten targets is not out of the realm of possibility for Allen week 1 and Rivers production will be tied to Allen's. The fact that they’re at home and not at arrowhead makes me like this stack even more.

Andrew Luck (6,100) T.Y. Hilton (6,800)
Luck and Hilton are both significantly underpriced the problem here is actually the reason why Andrew Luck will be popular, he hasn’t played since 2016. This would make me a little skittish in terms of my personal exposure, but the public will be on him, and they'll undoubtedly be stacking him with TY Hilton. I get this stack if you're getting the Andrew Luck of old for the price and potential value on both players this is a steal.

Kirk Cousins (6,500) Adam Thielen (6,900) and/or Steffon Diggs (6,300)
I believe this will be one of the more popular stacks come week one. It makes a lot of sense but buyer beware while I see bright outlook for the Vikings offense in 2018 it might take a week or two for them to get rolling. If you're going to roster this stack I would pay attention during the preseason to who Cousins seems to have the greatest rapport with between Thielen and Diggs obviously Thielen had a great rapport with Keenum last season but Keenum is now in Denver.

Ben Roethlisberger (6,600) Antonio Brown (8,600)
Most fantasy footballers have knowledge of Ben’s home road splits - for this reason this should be one of the lower owned chalky stacks come lineup lock. Personally like to stay away from Ben on the road but we still have a bit of time before Week 1 so anything can happen. Vance McDonald (3,200) should also be a nice option if you're looking to save salary due to the way Cleveland tends to play defense against the position in terms of their formation. Usually the Browns like to play their safeties high, so tight ends are allowed to eat in the middle of the field.

Andy Dalton (5,800) A.J. Green (7,300)
A.J. Green should garner some heavy ownership week one going up against one of the worst secondaries in the league last year in the Indianapolis Colts. I’m not one to roster Andy Dalton but other people will especially at this price tag and just for the stack with Green. Indy was 23rd in DVOA last season and 30th in yards allowed per play. With the departure of Vontae Davis the Colts lack a number one corner in their secondary to cover A.J. so he will gain interest as we move toward week one and Dalton will be attached to that sentiment so he will probably be a little higher owned then qb’s in his pricing tier.