Not much I really love on Defense week one. The highest priced defense is the Ravens (3,800) and they are a cash game play at home going up against Rookie Josh Allen and the Bills. The Jags (3,700) are the second highest defense in terms of price. I don’t recommend paying up for them in this spot. On paper it looks like a great spot but I definitely have my concerns with them being the away favorite and the line already moving from the open towards the Giants. The Saints at (3,600) are a defense that I’m high on at home versus the Buccaneers. Like them for both tournaments and also cash games going up against a Ryan Fitzpatrick led offense.
Mid Tier
In the Mid Tier I feel like the Steelers (3,400) and Panthers (3,200). The Steelers have an interesting matchup versus the Browns but this isn’t last year's Browns. I expect the Browns will actually keep pace in this game. If I were forced to pick one, I would definitely look to the Panthers who go up against a revamped cowboys offense. The Panthers defense is strong versus the run and funnels offense to the passing game. Dak Prescott struggled mightily in passing situations last year with Dez Bryant, the panthers are probably my favorite cash play in the mid tier.
Low Tier
The Chalk in the Low Tier with the San Diego Chargers (2,800). The Chargers should be chalk in both cash and tournaments. The Chargers are going up against first year starter Patrick Mahomes at home. They have a great pass rush so the sacks should be there. Another Defense I like in the Low Tier is the Giants (2,600) as a home dog going up against Blake Bortles. Bortles will get sacked and he’ll also throw interceptions so I think the Giants D could easily make value here. Damon Harrison has a full bill of health and is one of the best run stuffers in the league so that should hurt a run heavy offense like the Jaguars. The best play on the board I believe for the price is the Houston Texans (2,200) as a tournament pivot this could turn into the ultimate leverage spot with so much of the chalk on Patriots offensive players especially Rex Burkhead. I have a couple reasons for liking the Texans. The Patriots have had turnover on the offensive line, loosing their starting left tackle Nate Soldier this offseason to the Giants. The Patriots offensive line should be fine as the season progresses, but this is week one and the Texans when healthy have two of the best ends in football in JJ Watt and Jadeveon Clowney. I also like the blitzing ability of a guy like Tyran Matthieu off the ends. Bill O’Brien the former New England Patriots Offensive coordinator should know the best time to dial up the blitz. Brady not having a guy like Edelman too offset the blitz is another reason to like this Texans D. I honestly think the Texans Defense has one of the better chances to score a defensive touchdown than the majority of the defenses in the NFL week one. That coupled with the expected sacks they should vastly outperform this price tag.
