DFS GPP STACKS WEEK 18 2021

DRAFTKINGS DFS WEEK 18 GPP GAME STACKS

The final week of the regular season is upon us, and there’s actually merit to stacking MOST games with the prospect of shenanigans abounding everywhere, but let’s take a look at the top ones to target. Bear in mind that there are NO games on the main slate with an O/U above 45, so we’ll start there. Good luck!
 

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS AT LOS ANGELES RAMS (LAR -4.5, O/U 44.5)

RAMS
The Rams are the central point of this game stack, as the San Francisco secondary is decimated by COVID and the Rams are playing for the division and the #2 seed in the NFC. Stafford to Kupp is the obvious pair, as the latter is 12 catches and 136 yards away from breaking the single season receiving record for each. Last week was only his second game all year with under 10 targets, and he still smashed value. Odell Beckham and Van Jefferson are both excellent complementary WRs as each has an aDOT over 13 yards, and combined for 12 targets behind Kupp last week. Tyler Higbee has 21 targets over the past three weeks and makes for a cheap TE target in the stack, despite San Fran allowing the fifth fewest FPPg to the position.

Cam Akers is expected to return this week, but I cannot imagine he gets any kind of significant run only five months removed from a torn Achilles. Sony Michel has logged touch counts of 22, 28, 20, 20, and 27 over the past five weeks and is still only $6000.

49ERS
San Fran is not really a full stack option, presenting more as the bringback to full Rams stacks. The defense is middle of the road against both WRs and TEs, so any of Deebo Samuel/George Kittle/Brandon Aiyuk works depending on the salary that fits the overall lineup. Eli Mitchell is also perfectly fine after logging 23 touches in his return last week. The 49ers need this game even more than the Rams.

STACK IDEAS
Stafford/Kupp/Odell or Jefferson w/ Kittle or Mitchell
Stafford/Kupp/Higbee w/ Deebo or Aiyuk
Stafford/Kupp/Michel w/ any SF pass catcher

CHICAGO BEARS AT MINNESOTA VIKINGS (MIN -5.5, O/U 44.5)

BEARS
It’s odd to be targeting this game in stacks as both teams are eliminated from the playoffs, but assuming both teams play it straight (this is a risk, which is why it fits the GPP build more), we have potential for a shootout indoors here which is important as weather always plays a huge factor this late in the year.

Andy Dalton has been named the starter again (who knows why) which should mean the Bears push the ball a little more than they were with Fields. Darnell Mooney has maintained over a 30% air yards share all season long, and Cole Kmet is the perfect cheap TE with a 22.2% target share over the past six weeks (with three different QBs throwing to him). Don’t look now, but the ghost of Allen Robinson has six targets in three straight games and is still only $4000 on DK. The Vikings have now allowed the most FPPG to opposing WRs.

David Montgomery is the key Bears play, no matter which side of the stack you’re on. Over the past six games he’s averaging a shade under 24 touches per game, and has over 90% of the RZ carries in that span as well. Minnesota has allowed the ninth most FPPG to opposing RBs.

VIKINGS
Kirk Cousins to Justin Jefferson is the best starting point in this stack, as Jefferson has 92 targets over the last seven games and has a 34% target share without Adam Thielen. As long as he plays the whole game, Jefferson has overall WR1 upside this week. KJ Osborn’s target share is inconsistent, but he’s scored in four of the last five games, making him a perfect second play in this stack

Dalvin Cook is massively cheap for his role and talent at $7800, so the only thing holding him back is Minnesota potentially limiting his snap count. Chicago did bottle up Cook for 3.2 YPC last game they played, but Cook still had 30 touches in that game and his 80+% carry share is the key factor for his price tag.

STACK IDEAS
Dalton/Mooney/Robinson w/ Cook
Dalton/Montgomery/Kmet w/ Jefferson

Cousins/Jefferson/Osborn w/ Montgomery
Cousins/Jefferson/Cook w/ Robinson or Kmet

NEW YORK JETS AT BUFFALO BILLS

BILLS
This is a one-sided stack, as I have zero interest in the Jets’ side of things (especially since now they don’t even have Braxton Berrios to lean on in this one). The Bills are coming in with the highest team total on the slate at 29 points, and they’ll be going full steam ahead to win this one with their seeding outcome ranging from #2 all the way down to #7. Josh Allen is in essence both a QB and RB in this one, and the Jets have allowed an astonishing 26 TDs on the ground. For this reason, there’s a couple of ways to build since the Jets are also 30th in yards per play allowed. You can pair Allen with his WR corps of Diggs, Beasley, Davis, and Knox (I’m out on Emmanuel Sanders even if he plays), as the Jets have allowed the sixth most passing yards and the fifth most FPPG to opposing QBs. That said, you can also completely utilize the ground game here against the Jets who can end the season tomorrow having allowed the most FPPG EVER to opposing RBs. Pairing Allen with Devin Singletary and correlating with the Bills defense is a savvy play, which would mimic last week’s game script with an even better matchup this week against the Jets.


STACK IDEAS
Allen/Diggs/Davis w/ Michael Carter
Allen/Diggs/Knox w/ Michael Carter
Allen/Singletary/Bills D w/ no NYJ runback