DFS Three And Out 2022 week 2

Heading into Week 2, I've found some QBs I'm very interested in rolling out. In fact, I've found three I'll be playing heavily. I also ran across one that won't be in my lineups. Hey! That makes for an ideal DFS Tournament Three and Out.

I'm In

Derek Carr, QB, Las Vegas Raiders ($6,200 on DraftKings; $7,300 on FanDuel)

According to ESPN's Al Zeidenfeld, "Carr may be the biggest QB value this week on DraftKings as the Raiders have the highest implied team total of the entire slate." NBC Sports' Matthew Berry adds to that by noting the Raiders-Cardinals game has the second-highest over/under on the slate this week (51.5). But it's not just the implied total. It's more about an Arizona defense that looked out of sorts and toothless in their Week 1 drubbing at the hands of Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. That said, Berry points out that Carr averaged 20.1 FPPG in his seven games in which 50-plus points were scored. And now he's bringing Davante Adams along with him to these shootouts. The contrast in matchups is substantial, as last week's opponent, the Chargers, boast one of the most ferocious pass rushes in the game. The Cardinals, on the other hand, surrendered league highs of 360 yards and five touchdowns passing to Mahomes and the Chiefs. FantasyPros' Derek Brown put it like this: "Arizona's secondary is in shambles. They are 32nd in pass defense DVOA after ranking dead last in net yards per pass attempt, EPA per drop back, and success rate per drop back in Week 1. Josh McDaniels could use this as a statement game. ..." Carr should find his favorite target, Adams, open all day against Cardinals cornerbacks Byron Murphy Jr. and Marco Wilson, and it's quite likely that Darren Waller will experience more success of his own against a secondary that afforded Travis Kelce 26.1 PPR fantasy points in the opener. All aboard!

Carson Wentz, QB, Washington Commanders ($5,800 on DraftKings; $7,400 on FanDuel)

It wasn't all good in Wentz's Commanders debut. Yes, he threw for 313 yards and four touchdowns, including two in the final quarter, to lead a comeback win over the Jacksonville Jaguars. But as ESPN.com's John Keim noted, the reason Wentz had to rally the Commanders was because he threw interceptions on consecutive plays, leading to 10 Jaguars points. Wentz called it an ugly stretch, made possible by being late on one pick and forcing the second. Still, the well-traveled signal caller looked much-improved in his first game for his new team, and it's hard to overlook that upside given this week's matchup against a Lions defense that allowed 455 yards of offense to Philadelphia in Week 1. ESPN.com's Matt Bowen likes this matchup even more because Wentz excels at running play-action and throwing deep balls. A sharp assessment. As Brown noted, Detroit was 27th in pass defense DVOA last year, but they especially struggled against play-action passing. Detroit permitted the fifth-highest play-action yards per attempt and second-highest play-action passer rating last year. Wentz led the NFL in play-action passing attempts in Week 1.

Russell Wilson, QB, Denver Broncos ($7,200 on DraftKings; $7,500 on FanDuel)

What do you wanna bet Nathaniel Hackett let's Russ cook this week? Regardless of down, distance or game script. Look, Wilson was plenty productive in his Broncos debut. He passed for 340 and a touchdown despite seemingly needing some time to realize his wide receivers are capable playmakers. This week, Russ will be cooking against a Houston defense that is far from imposing. Last season, the Texans were routinely challenged down the field, allowing a league-high 8.3 yards per target, and Wilson lays claim to the highest deep-pass TD rate since 2018. "This is a great landing spot in Week 2 for tournament stacks and bring-backs," Zeidenfeld suggests. Yep. I'm in.

I'm Out

Tom Brady, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneer ($6,400 on DraftKings; $8,000 on FanDuel)

Brady has played the Saints four times in the regular season as a member of the Buccaneers. He has yet to win. In fact, as Profootballtalk.com notes, the regular-season games haven't even been close. The narrowest margin was seven. On a Sunday night in Tampa in 2020, the Saints blew the Bucs off the field, 38-3. For whatever reason, the Saints have had Tampa's number. As for Brady specifically, his lack of mobility plays right into the Saints hands. As Cockroft noted, the New Orleans defense has been at its best against prototypical pocket passers dating back to last year. In fact, only five quarterbacks have scored 13-plus fantasy points against them in a single game on passing plays. Cockroft acknowledges Brady was one of those quarterbacks, in his 25 point Week 8, but he hasn't generally excelled against this opponent, averaging 13 fantasy points in his four regular-season meetings with the Saints from 2020 to '21. Adding to the concerns this time, Brady has multiple receivers dealing with injuries. Chris Godwin (hamstring) seems certain to miss this game. Mike Evans, who has delivered a mixed bag going up against Saints CB Marshon Lattimore, is dealing with a calf injury. Julio Jones is nursing a sore knee. Leonard Fournette (hamstring), Russell Gage (hamstring) and Breshad Perriman (knee) have been working on a limited basis. It's all way less than ideal. Heck, I'm not eager to roll Brady out in season-long. I'm definitely not diving in with the entire universe of NFL QBs available to me.