Early Best Ball MFL10 ADP Review

By Michael Dubner

We are still early in the fantasy football draft season, and Average Draft Position (ADP) is all over the place. The ADP in June will look very different than the ADP in August, especially in the middle-to-late rounds. A lot can, and will, change by August. June MyFantasyLeague (MFL10) drafts are a great time to be ahead of the curve and take advantage of players whose ADP will change by August - whether that be aggressively drafting players whose ADP will rise, or passing on players whose ADP will fall. Here I discuss several players who are being undervalued and overvalued in June MFL10 drafts. Take advantage of these ADPs while you still can.

• Note: MFL10 is a "Best Ball" fantasy football format.
• ADP is based on drafts from May 6 to June 3, and was gathered using @FANTASYADHD's #MFL10 Live APP.
• Theme: A general theme that you will notice is that older players are consistently undervalued, while younger players are overvalued in early drafts. The fantasy football community seems to be attracted to the "unknown" ceiling of young players. However, more often than not, the probability of hitting that unknown ceiling is overestimated. In turn, the fantasy football community tends to allow older players to fall in drafts because they have "known" values. Yet, these established players continue to produce and beat their ADP.

Undervalued:

• Ty Montgomery (ADP: RB 22; Round 5) - The Green Bay Packers drafted Jamaal Williams and Aaron Jones in the middle rounds this year. While there is a chance these additions may cut into Montgomery's early-downs workload, Montgomery is the incumbent starter who will be given the first opportunity. Should Montgomery excel with his early opportunities, he could become the feature back. Regardless, he will be the pass-catcher out of the backfield in an Aaron Rodgers led offense. His role in the passing game should provide a floor of RB 20. Montgomery is currently being drafted at his floor, and I would consider him around RB 15.
• Danny Woodhead (ADP: RB 30; Round 7/8) - Yes, Woodhead is a 32-year-old running back coming off a torn ACL, but he doesn't come with the same mileage of the average 30+ year old running back - only 770 career touches. He will be able to showcase his value in the Ravens offense during the first month while Dixon serves his suspension. It will be difficult for the Ravens to take Woodhead off the field if he performs well during this stretch. The Ravens did not add any receivers this offseason and are missing over 200 targets from last year - Woodhead could be a big beneficiary of these missing targets. His receiving ability will provide a good floor in PPR formats, and he has shown PPR RB 1 upside in the past. I would draft Woodhead as high as RB 21. His current ADP remains a discount.
• Frank Gore (ADP: RB 36; Round 8/9) - No longer a weekly difference maker, but Gore finishes as an RB2 year-in and year-out. I don't expect that to change in 2017. I would draft Gore closer to RB 25. Shameless plug: read my "Frank Gore is a Value in Fantasy Drafts" article for an in-depth analysis.
• Darren Sproles (ADP: RB 50; Round 13) - Sproles is always under-drafted because people view third-down backs as having little upside. However, drafting a player who contributes fantasy points on a weekly basis is valuable this late in the draft. Another 50-reception season is very likely. Sproles will crush this ADP, and should be selected as a top 40 RB with confidence.
• Tyreek Hill (ADP: WR 27; Round 5) - While Tyreek's unsustainable points per touch efficiency is almost certainly going to regress this year, Hill's ADP already accounts for this. From week 7 on, Hill was the PPR WR 7. Andy Reid has publicly stated that he hopes Hill's snap counts will double this year and that he will assume a starting role. And now the recent release of Jeremy Maclin is further evidence that Hill will be a focal point of the Chief's offense. Maybe Ty-Freak is just #goodatfootball. Draft Hill in the WR 17-20 range in MFL10 best ball formats.
• Mike Wallace (ADP: WR 46; Round 9) - The fantasy football community has been trying to make the public aware of Wallace's low ADP, so his ADP has been steadily rising to a now respectable level. But, he still remains a value. He has finished as a top 35 PPR receiver in 7 of 8 seasons. Wallace should be drafted closer to WR 40.
• Others Considered - Willie Snead (ADP: WR 33; Round 6); Pierre Garcon (ADP: WR 40; Round 7), Rishard Matthews (ADP: WR 44; Round 8/9), Adam Thielen (ADP: WR 48; Round 10), Matt Forte (ADP: RB 44; Round 11), Carson Palmer (ADP: QB 26; Round 22)

Overvalued:

• Derrick Henry (ADP: RB 25; Round 6) - Yes, Henry will be a league winner if DeMarco Murray has a significant injury. But, how long will you have to wait for Murray to get hurt, if he even does? I like Henry a lot more if drafted as a low-end RB 3 or high-end RB 4.
• Keenan Allen (ADP: WR 16; Round 3) - Allen showed his upside in the first 8 games in 2015 where he recorded 67 receptions, 725 yards, and 4 TDs. However, that was a year-and-a-half ago. Since then, Allen has only played in one game, Melvin Gordon broke out in 2016, Hunter Henry and Tyrell Williams are young players who had productive seasons in 2016, and the Chargers drafted Mike Williams with the 7th overall pick in this year's NFL draft. Although I love Allen when he's on the field, there are major questions about his ability to remain healthy, as well as the volume of targets he will receive with the other emerging targets. There is too much risk with Allen at his current ADP. Wait to draft Allen until the WR 20-25 range.
• Corey Davis (ADP: WR 32; Round 5/6) - Davis was rightfully selected as the first receiver in the NFL draft. While Tennessee will likely be in the playoff hunt this year, and is led by franchise QB Marcus Mariota, this offense is focused around their "exotic smashmouth" running game. Also, Rishard Matthews and Delanie Walker will continue to be involved in the passing game. I like the floor and upside more of players being drafted behind Davis more. I don't have an issue with someone drafting Davis around WR 40, but I would wait until WR 48-50.
• Corey Coleman (ADP: WR 38; Round 7) - I get the intrigue with Coleman, as he was the first WR drafted in 2016 and has a lot of upside. However, there are just too many concerns to warrant drafting Coleman this high. He seems to always be dinged up - he has already gotten hurt this offseason after "landing on a football" awkwardly and continues to deal with the hamstring issue that caused him to miss time in 2016. There were also reports that Coleman was affected by the cold weather - another red flag. While I do believe Cody Kessler is semi-competent QB, I like to associate my fantasy WRs with productive offenses, and the Browns are not a fertile offense for fantasy production. Consider Coleman closer to WR 50.
• Hunter Henry (ADP: TE 7; Round 8) - After the top ~6 tight ends, you can make the case for numerous players to be ranked as the TE 7. I don't have an issue with someone liking Henry, as he is one of only a handful of rookie TEs to score 8 touchdowns. However, I believe this is one year too early for Henry. There are a lot of mouths to feed in the Chargers offense, and Henry was only on the field for 53.8% of the offensive snaps. Although I wouldn't draft Henry as the 7th TE, I don't have a big issue with it. What I do have an issue with is drafting Henry in the 8th round when you can wait to draft players like Kyle Rudolph and Zach Ertz nearly one round later, or Eric Ebron and Jack Doyle over two rounds later.
• Others Considered: O.J. Howard (ADP: TE 13; Round 11), Kevin White (ADP: WR 55; Round 11), Josh Doctson (ADP: WR 53; Round 10), Alvin Kamara (ADP: RB 41; Round 10/11)