KC Joyner’s Top-10 Wideout Analysis

UPDATED! 08/23/2023

Fantasy managers are enjoying the glut of WR1 prospects on the board this year, but that abundance of value affords them many opportunities to get the best return on investment in fantasy drafts.

I aim to help with this effort by giving Football Diehards readers access to the annual deep dive write-ups from The Football Scientist 2023 Draft Guide for the top 10 wide receivers. This is the 20th season of my draft guide series (this year's version can be found here - use the discount code DIEHARDS for 10% off) yet this is the first time that the top 10 wide receiver write-ups are available outside of that series.

These write-ups begin with overall, upside, and downside grades and rankings. This system measures a player's prospects if things go well (upside) or poorly (downside) and then finds the level they are most likely to perform at (overall). The grade rankings are on a 1-100 scale, with 100 being best.

Next up is matchup points, which gauges a player's 2023 pass coverage slate on a 1-100 scale, with higher numbers being better, followed by auction values in typical half PPR scoring system with a $200 auction cap.

The write-ups then go into detail regarding the upside case for the player, followed by the downside case and overall case. It then notes what the draft strategy for that player should be.

These write-ups also have references to a color-coded matchup system that designates favorable matchups as green-rated and unfavorable matchups as red-rated.

Now that the basics have been reviewed, let's get to the top 10 wide receiver reviews!

(Note: these rankings are updated through August 22.)
 

Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings

Overall grade/rank: 100, 1
Upside grade/rank: 100, 1
Downside grade/rank: 95.7, 1
Matchup points: 43
Auction value (half PPR, $200): $60

Upside case: Jefferson joined Stefon Diggs as the only two wide receivers to place in the top eight in overall, short, vertical, and stretch vertical PPR PPG last year. He topped all wideouts in red zone and inside the 10-yard line targets, was first in red zone receptions, and tied for first in inside the 10-yard line receptions. Jefferson is the king of workhorse wideouts, as over the past two years no wide receiver posted more targets, receptions, or receiving yards. He has not missed a game in his three-year NFL career.

Downside case: HC Kevin O'Connell wants the Vikings to get into fewer shootout games. Jefferson doesn't need those types of contests to be the top fantasy wide receiver, but they do provide a tiebreaking boost against some very tough competition for that leading draft spot.

Overall case: Even with this position having multiple candidates for the top spot, Jefferson's case is more than strong enough to win him that honor, as he has nearly across the board 100 grades.

Draft strategy: Jefferson will be the No. 1 pick on the board in a high percentage of draft rooms.

Ja'Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals

Overall grade/rank: 97.5, 2
Upside grade/rank: 100, 1
Downside grade/rank: 90.0, 2
Matchup points: 30
Auction value (half PPR, $200): $59

Upside case: Chase was one of four wide receivers to post 20+ PPR PPG in 2022. He was second only to Cooper Kupp in short PPR PPG and placed ninth in vertical PPR PPG. Chase notably increased his targets and receptions per game over what was one of the greatest rookie wide receiver seasons in history, so he has the capacity to lead the league in those categories. Chase placed fourth in the NFL in red zone targets despite playing only 12 games and could top all wideouts in that metric in a full season. Cincinnati's offensive line improvements could allow Zac Taylor to lean on the aerial attack even more in 2023.

Downside case: As powerful as Chase's numbers were last year, it should be noted that in many cases they were regressions. He went from third to ninth in PPR PPG at the vertical depth level and dropped from second to 35th in stretch vertical PPR PPG. Some of that can be attributed to the hip injury, yet the breakout short pass production could shift some of Chase's target volume into the impact dink and dunk category. The short pass lean brings up the question of if Chase may have lost a bit of speed due to that hip ailment.

Overall case: Chase has now shown that he can generate dominant fantasy points regardless of how he is utilized. He's in a battle with Justin Jefferson for the No. 1 overall ranking at wide receiver.

Draft strategy: It will take an early first-round draft pick to land Chase in nearly every fantasy league.

Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins

Overall grade/rank: 95.6, 3
Upside rank: 100, 1
Downside rank: 88.0, 3
Matchup points: 20
Auction value (half PPR, $200): $55

Upside case: Justin Jefferson was the only wideout to post more plays of 10+ and 20+ yards than Hill last year, but even Jefferson was unable to keep up with Hill in the 50+ yard reception category, as Hill's four catches of that length were unmatched. Hill posted more vertical PPR PPG than any wide receiver, was second only to Davante Adams in stretch vertical PPR PPG and was one of just four wideouts to average 20+ PPR PPG overall. Mike McDaniel is every bit as adroit at calling long pass plays as he is putting together ground attacks and Hill is the primary beneficiary of that. Hill also gets aerials in close, as he was second on the club in red zone and inside the 10-yard line targets last season.

Downside case: The Hill/McDaniel combination works great with Tua Tagovailoa, but what happens if Tagovailoa misses time due to injury? Tagovailoa's alarming concussions almost caused him to retire and those are far from the only ailments he's been hit with in his collegiate and pro tenures. Hill's 2022 metrics can't be considered true outliers, as he's been close to that level on many occasions, but even a top five ranking in those in 2023 would qualify as a stat regression when compared other elite WR1s. The schedule is a negative tiebreaker.

Overall case: It's something of a tossup between the top three wide receivers on this year's board and a case can be made for Hill to rank anywhere in that group.

Draft strategy: Hill will fly off boards somewhere in Round 1 in most drafts.

A.J. Brown, Philadelphia Eagles

Overall grade/rank: 94.6, 4
Upside grade/rank: 100, 1
Downside grade/rank: 86.9, 4
Matchup points: 43
Auction value (half PPR, $200): $49

Upside case: HC Nick Sirianni brought Brown in to turbocharge the Eagles long passing game and Brown did just that by ranking fourth in vertical PPR PPG and third in stretch vertical PPR PPG. Brown wasn't just a deep threat, as he also placed 21st in short PPR PPG, and was a workhorse wideout with 145 targets and 88 receptions. Brown has posted a 10+ YPT in three of his four NFL seasons, so this is not anomalous territory for him. Brown is also Philadelphia's principal red zone and inside the 10-yard line pass catcher and has racked up 9+ touchdowns in three of his four pro campaigns.

Downside case: Brown missed seven games over the course of the 2020 and 2021 seasons, so he still needs to prove he can be a workhorse in consecutive seasons. The Eagles have a new offensive coordinator who has never been an NFL-level OC. Philadelphia has a slew of superb goal line rushers and thus may not partake of Brown's red zone skills as often as they might otherwise.

Overall case: The projection here is that last year is the new normal for Brown, which is enough to reserve him a spot in the top four at this position.

Draft strategy: The top four positional valuation for Brown provides a value opportunity, as he is a first-round caliber player who will be available in Round 2 in most draft rooms.

Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams

Overall grade/rank: 92.8, 5
Upside grade/rank: 98.8, 5
Downside grade/rank: 85.0, 5
Matchup points: 1
Auction value (half PPR, $200): $48

Upside case: Last year, Kupp ranked first in PPR PPG and .5 PPR PPG as well as second in non-PPR PPG. Those numbers weren't quite equal to the all-time scoring pace he posted in 2021, but pro-rate Kupp's 2022 PPR PPG clip over a full 17-game season and it equals 380.5 points, a total only reached by a wideout on six occasions in league history. That he did this in a campaign where Matthew Stafford battled injury, the offensive line was incredibly banged up, no other wideout took coverage pressure off of Kupp, and Sean McVay thought about retirement, and it shows Kupp's 2021 greatness was not an anomaly.

Downside case: No one doubts Kupp's talents - the issue is can he utilize them over a 17-game season? His history indicates it is far from certain, as Kupp has caught more than 75 passes in a season on only two occasions and tallied fewer than 1,000 receiving yards in four of his six NFL campaigns. Kupp racked up dominant PPG totals on short passes last year but ranked 17th and 18th, respectively, in vertical and stretch vertical PPG. That could be an indicator that Stafford's vertical passing prowess is still hindered by his elbow ailment, which is one of many potential injury concerns for Stafford. The matchup points total is as low as can be.

Overall case: Kupp could lay claim to being the No. 1 fantasy wide receiver in many scenarios, as few wide receivers are capable of posting consistently dominant numbers at the level that Kupp can but add the durability concerns for him and Stafford to a strong set of upper-tier WR1 candidates and it drops Kupp a few spots below that No. 1 slot.

Draft strategy: He's a great consolation prize for fantasy managers who land a mid-tier first-round pick.

Stefon Diggs, Minnesota Vikings

Overall grade/rank: 91.1, 6
Upside grade/rank: 97.3, 6
Downside grade/rank: 83.2, 6
Matchup points: 20
Auction value (half PPR, $200): $47

Upside case: Pick any wide receiver stat area from last year and Diggs excels in it. He rated fifth in vertical and stretch vertical PPR PPG, seventh in short PPR PPG, and fifth in overall PPR PPG. Only six wide receivers posted more plays of 10+ yards. He was tied for fifth in the league in red zone targets and tied for second in red zone receiving touchdowns. Few wide receivers work with a quarterback of Josh Allen's caliber and there may not be another wideout as central to his team's passing attack as Diggs.

Downside case: That centrality doesn't seem to be enough, as Diggs showed his displeasure following the AFC Divisional loss to Cincinnati both during the contest and during the offseason when he skipped parts of the Bills offseason programs. This is reminiscent of how his Minnesota tenure ended and could lead to issues during the 2023 season if things aren't going well. This may cause Buffalo to try to de-risk their offense from Diggs to at least some extent, including leaning on the ground game a bit more. The matchup points total does not offer assistance.

Overall case: There are only a handful of wide receivers capable of equaling Diggs when he is at his best, but none outside of Tyreek Hill has the volatility that Diggs brings to his fantasy profile. That trait is enough to keep Diggs in the middle of the WR1 tier.

Draft strategy: He will be a late first- or early second-round pick in most leagues.

Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders

Overall grade/rank: 90.5, 7
Upside grade/rank: 96.7, 7
Downside grade/rank: 82.6, 7
Matchup points: 46
Auction value (half PPR, $200): $41

Upside case: Just when it seemed that Adams had set the bar for workhorse wideouts by posting 318 targets over two seasons, he went even higher by generating 180 targets in his first year in a Josh McDaniels offense. McDaniels may want to throw even more this season, so a 200-target campaign is not out of the question for Adams. He has found the end zone 43 times over the past three years, a league-leading pace that is ten touchdowns ahead of second place. Adams is very good on short passes (ranked 13th in PPR PPG last year) but excels at the stretch vertical level, placing first in PPG in every scoring category at this depth level in 2022.

Downside case: Adams has posted 1,500 receiving yards in two straight years. Only five players have ever tallied 1.5K yards in three or more seasons and none of them did so in three consecutive campaigns. Adams was not happy about the quarterback change from Derek Carr to Jimmy Garoppolo, especially as it relates to downfield passing. There may be a shift to more aerials of the short variety with Garoppolo at quarterback.

Overall case: The quarterback alteration isn't ideal for Adams' fantasy value, but the list of wideouts capable of posting his target volume is short enough to keep Adams in the middle of the WR1 club.

Draft strategy: Adams is the definition of a consensus second-round pick.

CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys

Overall grade/rank: 88.5, 8
Upside grade/rank: 94.9, 8
Downside grade/rank: 80.4, 8
Matchup points: 30
Auction value (half PPR, $200): $39

Upside case: Fantasy managers have been waiting for Lamb to graduate to a WR1 standing and he did so last season with top six rankings in both non-PPR and PPR points. He was prolific in terms of 10+ and 20+ yard plays, as Lamb ranked third and tied for third, respectively, in those categories last year. Landing in the 100+ reception class shows that Lamb is capable of being a true workhorse wideout. He was tied for the team lead in red zone receptions and tied for second in red zone touchdown receptions.

Downside case: Lamb accounted for 156 of the Cowboys 556 pass attempts last year. That's already a high percentage of the team's aerial attack and if HC Mike McCarthy lives up to his word and has Dallas throw the ball less frequently in 2023, Lamb may see a marginal target volume decrease. The Cowboys had to replace 31 red zone targets from 2021 and yet Lamb's red zone target total only increased by two year-over-year. This suggests Lamb has a set role on red zone throws and won't be the club's leading target there. The matchup points total is less than stellar.

Overall case: The Cowboys ground game commitment keeps Lamb from contending for the top wide receiver spot, but it doesn't preclude him from being at the peak just below the elites at this position.

Draft strategy: Lamb is going in the late first round in most draft rooms, but his suggested value is as an early second-round selection.

Garrett Wilson, New York Jets

Overall grade/rank: 86.3, 9
Upside grade/rank: 92.8, 9
Downside grade/rank: 78.0, 9
Matchup points: 30
Auction value (half PPR, $200): $33

Upside case: Wilson was weighed down by Zach Wilson contending for the worst vertical pass metrics in 2022 yet was able to overcome that and land 19th in vertical PPR PPG. Wilson wasn't a workhorse wideout at Ohio State but he sure was one of those last year, as he was tied for seventh in wide receiver targets. Aaron Rodgers is already on the Wilson bandwagon, having favorably compared with him Davante Adams, so it isn't pushing the envelope to say that Wilson could have Adams-like value in this offense. Wilson could also mimic Adams as Rodgers' primary red zone and inside the 10-yard line target, having already led the club by wide margins in targets in those areas in 2022.

Downside case: This will not be a pass-happy offense, as the front office and HC Robert Saleh have built this team with the classic approach of power running, counterpunch vertical passing, and strong defense. Wilson could lose some of the red zone and inside the 10-yard line targets to Allen Lazard, who was Rodgers' favorite target in those areas of the field with the Packers last season. The matchup points total is a bit of an obstacle.

Overall case: It's too much to ask Wilson to equal Adams, yet it seems perfectly sensible to expect Wilson to be a low-end WR1 this year.

Draft strategy: Wilson won't make it out of Round 2 in most draft rooms.

DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia Eagles

Overall grade/rank: 83.3, 10
Upside grade/rank: 90.0, 11
Downside grade/rank: 74.9, 10
Matchup points: 23
Auction value (half PPR, $200): $31

Upside case: Smith saw no sophomore slump, as Jalen Hurts' passing improvements helped Smith post large increases in targets, receptions, and receiving yards last year. Smith fared quite well at every route depth level, placing in the top 26 in short, vertical, stretch vertical, and overall PPR PPG. He led the SEC with 117 receptions in 2020, so Smith has experience being a workhorse wideout. Smith hit his stride late last year, as he averaged 22.3 PPR PPG in the last six games of the season. That may indicate the Eagles finally figured out the gameplan formula to get the most from Smith and it could carry over into the 2023 campaign.

Downside case: If that late season production formula carries over, it will have to be via knowledge transfer, as OC Shane Steichen is now the head coach of the Colts. He's been replaced by Brian Johnson, who has never been an offensive coordinator at the NFL level. Smith had only four targets inside the 10-yard line in 2022. Brown had eight and the Eagles have Jalen Hurts and a four-deep crew of running backs for goal line carries, so Smith will find it difficult to get dibs on more of these. The matchup points total isn't a plus.

Overall case: Smith was a low-end WR1 last season and there is little reason to expect a decline from that pace, hence an identical valuation for 2023.

Draft strategy: Most outlets are expecting a drop-off for Smith, so he can provide WR1 value in Rounds 2-3.