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Ranking the Runners 2023 RB Prospects part I
Ranking the Runners
2023 Running Back Prospects
part I
After 45 years watching football and ten years publishing prospect profiles, it is obvious to me that NFL runners can be successful in so many different styles, body types and physical traits. The best draftniks are open-minded and use traits and measurables as a guide. Yet, rely on empiricism, film study and production metrics to identify great runners despite their contrasts with the football in their hands.
I grew up in an era of running back dominance in the NFL and loved watching Walter Payton, Earl Campbell, George Rogers, Eric Dickerson and Billy Sims run over and around opponents. I started playing fantasy football in the early Nineties when Emmitt Smith, Barry Sanders and Thurman Thomas stood above their contemporaries as fantasy studs.
Before embarking on draft analysis, I had witnessed so many great runners. The 2015 Draft presented my first challenge as a draftnik between Todd Gurley and Melvin Gordon. The Wisconsin runner earned the top spot in the rankings. I was concerned about the former Bulldogs’ injury, which convinced me to select Gordon in Dynasty drafts. Looking back, both ball carriers produced nice NFL careers: Gurley flashed for three seasons at a rarefied fantasy level, and Gordon pounded away for seven campaigns in the trenches.
Over the past decade, four runners stand above all the other RB prospects in my model—Ezekiel Elliot (2016), Saquon Barkley (2018), Jonathan Taylor (2020) and Breece Hall (2022). In 2023, Bijan Robinson profiles in the same stratosphere as the aforementioned prospects. In the next tier, both Zach Charbonnet and Jahmyr Gibbs rank among the cadre that includes Gordon, Gurley, Najee Harris (2021) and Christian McCaffrey (2017). Overall, the ’23 Class is deep at the RB position, and it would not surprise me that a fantasy stud emerges from among those chosen in the fourth round or later in the NFL Draft.
2023 Gridiron Scholar's Running Back Model (2014-2023)
(Click the link above to see the RB model, benchmarks and players’ statistics)
I have watched hours of film, taken in-game notes during the fall, uploaded the career statistics and graded the top running backs available in the 2023 NFL Draft. It is time to share the results of my endeavors with Draftniks, and Fantasy Footballers, like myself.…Enjoy my fellow diehards!
1. Bijan Robinson, Texas
Prospect Resume
In 2022, unanimous All-American, Doak Walker Award, First Team All-American and First Team All-Big 12. Established career highs with 1,580 rushing yards and 18 touchdowns. In 2021, Named First Team All-Big 12. Maxwell Award, Doak Walker Award and Earl Campbell Tyler Rose Award semifinalist. Logged 1,127 yards rushing and 11 touchdowns. In 2020, Big-12 Freshman of the Year: Rushed for 703 yards and four scores. In high school, a five-star prospect. Ranked No. 23 nationally, No. 2 running back, and No. 2 overall in Arizona by 247Sports. Arizona’s career all-time touchdown leader with 114 and rusher with 7,036 yards. First running back in state history to top 2,000 yards in three consecutive seasons. Earned Arizona Gatorade Player of the Year in 2019. Career: Ranks fourth all-time in Longhorns’ history with 3,410 rushing yards and 41 total touchdowns (33 rushing, eight receiving). 18 career 100-yard rushing games. Fourth all-time unanimous All-American Texas running back—James Saxton (1961), Earl Campbell (1977) and Ricky Williams (1997, ‘98)—to earn the honor.
Key Career Stats
Rushing Yards: 3,410
Yards per Carry: 6.3
Receptions: 60
2022 Season
Yards from Scrimmage: 1,894
Scrimmage Yards Dominator: 37%
Film Breakdown and Skills
At 6’0” and 222-pounds, profiles as a three-down, bell cow runner as a professional. Relentless competitor. Presses the hole, scans for opening and blasts through. Excellent patience. Stupendous contact balance. Difficult to bring down one-on-one. Elite lateral agility and elusiveness. Easily identifies cut-back lanes. Effortlessly slashes through traffic with quick feet. Employs an effective stiff arm to escape tacklers. Picks up additional yards after first contact: Keeps feet churning. Breakaway speed and excels at the second-level of the defense. Prolific pass catcher who ran an advance route tree. Quality pass protector. An elite running back prospect, who warrants a Top 10 selection in the NFL Draft. Ranks among my top five ball carriers graded over the past decade.
Scholar's Grade: First Round
2. Zach Charbonnet, UCLA
Prospect Resume
In 2022, FWAA First Team All-American, First Team All-PAC-12 and Doak Walker semifinalist. Led nation in all-purpose yards per game (168). Eclipsed the 100-yard threshold in eight of 10 games played. Recorded back-to-back 1,000-yard campaigns. In 2021, named Henry R. Red Sanders Award as Bruins’ MVP. First Team All-PAC-12 and AP Newcomer of the Year in the conference. Second Team All-PAC-12. Rushed for 1,137 yards on 203 carries and 13 touchdowns. Transfer from Michigan to UCLA following the 2020 campaign. In 2019, started seven games as a true freshman at Michigan: Scampered for 726 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns. All-Big Ten honorable mention. Only fourth true freshman to start the season opener at tailback in school history. Named Big Ten Freshman of the Week against Army. In high school, four-star prospect. Ranked as the No. 26 overall player in the nation, No. 3 running back, No. 4 recruit in California. 2019 Under Armour All-American Game. Rambled for 4,711 yards on 577 carries and scored 62 times.
Key Career Stats
Rushing Yards: 3,346
Yards per Carry: 5.9
Receptions: 75
2022 Season
Yards from Scrimmage: 1,680
Scrimmage Yards Dominator: 28%
Film Breakdown and Skills
At 6’0” and 214-pounds, a big-bodied ball carrier who packs a punch. Great size and strength. Prodigious vision. Patience in traffic. Excellent burst with decisiveness. Cuts back off blocks well and finds open lanes. North-South ball carrier, who runs upright. Fancy feet: Plants foot and explodes upfield. Power runner with considerable contact balance. Fights through contact and gains additional yards after initial impact. Three-down playmaker, who is an underrated pass catcher. Questions in regard to top-end speed: Can he breakaway from defenders in the open field? Occasionally, dances at the line of scrimmage. Loses momentum when changing direction. Does not make tacklers miss often. Prefers to initiate contact and power through opponents. Looks more productive as a gap, than zone runner. Profiles as a lead back, who could handle over 200 touches as a professional.
Prospect Resume
In 2022, transferred from Georgia Tech to Alabama. Second Team All-SEC as running back and Second Team All-American as all-purpose. Finished second in Crimson Tide single-season history for receptions by a running back with 44. Established career best with 926 rushing yards. Hornung Award finalist. In 2021, named All-ACC at three different positions: First Team All-ACC as all-purpose back, Second Team All-ACC as a specialist and Third Team recognition at running back. Accumulated 1,805 total yards—the second most in a single-season history by a Yellow Jacket. In 2020, Second Team Freshman All-America and All-ACC honorable mention. Also, all conference return specialist. In high school, a four-star prospect and fifth-highest-rated recruit in Georgia Tech history. Named Georgia’s 6-A 2020 Offensive Player of the Year and first team all-state. Participated in the 2020 All-American Bowl.
Key Career Stats
Rushing Yards: 2,056
Yards per Carry: 5.6
Receptions: 101
2021 Season
Yards from Scrimmage: 1,211
Scrimmage Yards Dominator: 27%
Film Breakdown and Skills
At 5’9” and 199-pounds, an elite pass-catching back, who challenges the defense at all three levels. Arguably, the best receiving back among the RB prospects. Natural hands catcher. Can be lined up all over the formation. Advanced route tree on resume. Three-year starter in college. Dynamic playmaker with galvanizing burst. Excels on outside runs and explodes in the open field. Identifies cut back lanes. Leaves defenders grasping for air at the second level. Fantastic vision and fluid runner. Creative runner who can gain extra yardage. Only four fumbles on 486 touches. Can contribute on kick returns on the first day of training camp. Will be only 21 years old when drafted. A little undersized ball carrier. Struggles breaking tackles in traffic. Poor pass protector. Might be best utilized in a backfield committee because of smaller frame.
Scholar’s Grade: Second Round
4. Israel Abanikanda, Pittsburgh
Prospect Resume
In 2022, First Team All-ACC: 1,431 rushing yards and 20 touchdowns. First Team All-American (ESPN). Maxwell Award and Walter Camp Award semifinalist. Against Virginia Tech, career-best 320 rushing yards and named Doak Walker National Running Back of the Week. Finished as the NCAA statistical champion in scoring (11.6 points per game), total touchdowns (21) and rushing touchdowns (20). Second in all-purpose yards (164.1), fourth in total points scored (128), and seventh in rushing yards per game (130.1). In 2021, led Pitt in rushing yards (651) and rushing touchdowns (seven) on 123 carries. Paced team in kickoff returns, averaging 29.4 yards per attempt: Seven for 206 yards and a TD. Named ACC Specialist of the Week, logging a 98-yard kickoff return touchdown against Virginia—Pitt’s first kick return TD since 2018. In high school, a three-star prospect, No. 1 overall prospect in New York and rated the nation’s No. 15 running back. New York’s Gatorade Player of the Year. Two-time 100-meter Gold Medalist and 100-meter Bronze Medalist.
Key Career Stats
Rushing Yards: 2,177
Yards per Carry: 5.6
Receptions: 38
2022 Season
Yards from Scrimmage: 1,577
Scrimmage Yards Dominator: 33%
Film Breakdown and Skills
At 5’11” and 216-pounds, one-cut runner, who accelerates quickly. A young ball carrier only 20-years old in April. Home run hitter with quick and fancy footwork. Compact frame: Strong lower body and loose hips. Superb amalgam of acceleration, burst and speed. Patient ball carrier, who allows blocks to develop. Good vision but not elite. Very good contact balance: Shreds tacklers with muscle and power. Strings together elusive moves to find holes and blast upfield. Rapidly turns the corner and bounces outside on the perimeter. Excellent long speed and hits second gear in the open field. Willing pass blocker. Did not excel in the passing game: Limited route tree. Does not push the pile forward. Projects best as an outside-zone runner. A value selection in the NFL Draft if he falls to the third day.
Scholar’s Grade: Second Round
5. Kendre Miller, TCU
Prospect Resume
In 2022, First Team All-Big 12 after gaining 1,399 rushing yards and scoring 17 times. Doak Walker semifinalist. Led team in rushing after taking over the backfield chores when Zach Evans transferred to Mississippi. In 2021, finished second on the team with 623 yards rushing and topped TCU with seven touchdowns. The only player in the nation with three touchdowns over 32 yards in the same game with runs of 33, 75 and 45 yards. In high school, a three-star recruit and No. 122 athlete in the country. As a senior, played quarterback and rushed for 2,508 and 34 scores. Named third team all-state in Texas.
Key Career Stats
Rushing Yards: 2,410
Yards per Carry: 6.7
Receptions: 29
2022 Season
Yards from Scrimmage: 1,515
Scrimmage Yards Dominator: 22%
Film Breakdown and Skills
At 5’11” and 215-pounds, a big-ball carrier, who is gritty, rugged and physical. Elusive downhill runner. Good vision and identifies cut-back lanes. Very good size-and speed-combo with agility and twitch. North-South ball carrier with top-notch athleticism. Creative and natural runner with good spatial awareness. Explosive playmaker who accelerates quickly. Finds daylight and blasts upfield. Navigates tight quarters with nimble feet and strength. Very good jump cuts and stutter steps to elude tacklers. Stiff arms opponents. Strong legs with stupendous contact balance and low center of gravity. Picks up blitz well: Anchors and punches rushers. Only 21 when the season kicks off with limited carries. Sparse use as a pass catcher. Sporadically, fails to run underneath pads. Does not always bulldoze opponents in short-yardage situations. The physical tools and run skills of a starter in the NFL.
Scholar’s Grade: Second Round
6. Tyjae Spears, Tulane
Prospect Resume
In 2022, AAC Offensive Player of the Year: 1,581 rushing yards, 256 receiving yards and 21 scores. Logged nine games over 100 yards and concluded campus tenure with eight consecutive ones. In the Cotton Bowl versus USC, scampered for 205 rushing yards and four touchdowns. Preseason candidate for the Doak Walker Award. In 2021, returned to action after recovering from an injury the year before, and played in 12 games. Finished the season eclipsing 100 yards in four of the last five games, including career-best 264 versus Memphis. In 2020, played in only three games before he suffered a season-ending ACL injury. Averaged 7.4 yards per carry on 37 attempts. Fifth all-time leading rusher at Tulane. In high school, a three-star prospect in Louisiana. In his senior season, totaled 18 touchdowns and recorded 920 rushing and 880 receiving yards for a total of 1,800.
Key Career Stats
Rushing Yards: 2,910
Yards per Carry: 6.8
Receptions: 48
2022 Season
Yards from Scrimmage: 1,837
Scrimmage Yards Dominator: 29%
Film Breakdown and Skills
Top Green Wave RB prospect since Matt Forte in 2008. At 5’10” and 204-pounds, an explosive runner, who is twitchy and shifty with a compact build. Great combination of patience, feet, balance, and vision. Speedy ball carrier with excellent lateral quickness. Terrific jump cuts and makes defenders whiff. Follows blocks well. Finds open lanes and explodes into the open field. Bursts upfield rapidly and gains chunks of yards. Excels in the open field at the second level of the defense. Fights through contact. Very good pass catcher with soft hands. Snatches the ball away from the body. Runs good routes. After securing the ball, easily transitions to runner. Limited special teams. Must improve between the tackles. Can be pushed around by blitzers. Will he earn Day 2 Draft capital? Based on film study and production model, a worthy selection on the second day of the draft.
Draft Grade: Second Round