Round-by-Round Draft Strategies to Win the Title in 2021

In fantasy football, there are as many draft strategies as there are annoying reality TV shows. Seriously, do we really need 10 different Real Housewives shows? Really?

There’s “Robust RB,” which is essentially the old-school approach of hitting running backs early and often. There’s “Zero RB,” which is the polar opposite – punting on the position for the first several rounds in favor of loading up at wide receiver and tight end.

There is also “Modified Zero RB,” which is the worst name ever for a draft strategy because the “modification” (drafting a back in Round 1) rather takes the whole “zero” part right out of it. We’ll call it “Anchor RB” and be done with it.

For every fantasy pundit who advocates drafting a quarterback early, there’s another that swears up and down that waiting is the way to go. Draft a big-name tight end. Don’t and stream the position. On and on and so on and so forth.

Here’s a dirty little secret for you. All of them work. And none of them work.

There are any number of variables that could impact the viability of one of those strategies on draft day. If half a league is dead-set on going Zero RB, the value at wide receiver will dry up more quickly while there will be backs on the board who really shouldn’t be. Conversely, if everyone and their mom drafts backs early (which is not uncommon this year) the pool of reliable backfield talent will evaporate quickly.

Waiting to draft a quarterback may well be a good idea. But if everyone does it and Patrick Mahomes of the Chiefs is still available in the fifth round, then a change of plans is advisable.

And that’s the thing. Smart fantasy managers know that adhering to any strategy no matter what will backfire as many times as not. Flexibility is key. Always have a Plan B ready. Don’t force things – let the draft come to you.

With that said though, there is a blueprint for a fantasy football draft that I’ve found usually produces a competitive team – a “middle ground” approach that actually combines a few different strategies into a tasty stew of fantasy goodness.

And here’s the recipe.
 

Rounds 1-3

It’s confession time – where fantasy draft strategies and running backs are concerned, I admittedly lean more toward “Robust” than “Zero.” It would appear that I’m not alone in that sentiment – at Fantasy Football Calculator, 10 of the fi rst 12 picks on average in 2021 have been running backs.

The fewest running backs I have seen drafted in Round 1 this year is nine.

There’s no denying that running backs “bust” with more frequency than wide receivers – just ask the fantasy managers who drafted Christian McCaffrey or Saquon Barkley in 2020. That’s just the nature of the position. It’s also true that in PPR formats more often than not wide receivers will out-point running backs with a similar ADP.

But it’s not like elite wide receivers are immune to busting in their own right – two of last year’s top-3 wideouts in ADP (Michael Thomas of the Saints and Julio Jones of the Falcons) went splat as well.

There’s also no denying that the pool of talent available to fantasy drafters at wide receiver is much deeper than at running back. That positional scarcity (not the last time you’ll see that term) has to be taken into consideration.

The problem with Zero RB isn’t hard to pinpoint – there’s a reason it was “modified.” The odds of hitting on a breakout running back in the middle rounds of a draft just aren’t good. Per Hayden Winks of NBC Sports Edge, from 2014 to 2019 there were 61 running backs who averaged at least 15 PPR points per game. Of those 61 backs, 42 (almost 70 percent) were drafted in the first three rounds.

Nine times out of 10, the smartest play to be made in Round 1 is the boring one – take a running back. As to that 10th time? Well, that’s where our first sidebar comes in.

THE KELCE KONUNDRUM

The front half of Round 1 is rather a no-brainer for fantasy managers in 2021. According to the ADP information at both Fantasy Football Calculator and Underdog Fantasy, the top-6 selections are all running backs.

However, once you hit the back half of the round, there’s a quandary to be faced. Do fantasy managers stay the course and draft a back like Nick Chubb of the Cleveland Browns? Go a different direction and become the first team to draft a wide receiver like Kansas City’s Tyreek Hill? Or take the plunge, get bold and select a player who has dominated his position for years in Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce?

A pretty compelling argument can be made for that third course of action.

Last year, Kelce peeled off the best season of his eight-year NFL career – 105 receptions, 1,416 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns. It marked the fifth straight season that Kelce had caught at least 80 passes and topped 1,000 yards. It was also the fifth consecutive year that Kelce amassed the most PPR points among tight ends.

Kelce didn’t just out-point every other tight end in fantasy last year – the 31-year-old did so by a massive margin. Kelce outscored last year’s No. 2 tight end (Darren Waller of the Raiders) by over three fantasy points per game. He outscored the No. 3 tight end (Green Bay’s Robert Tonyan) by a staggering 136 PPR points.

That’s more fantasy points than Dallas Goedert of the Eagles and George Kittle of the 49ers scored for the entire season

The margin wasn’t quite so pronounced in 2019 or 2018. But there isn’t a tight end in the game who has been more consistent over the past five seasons. In addition to posting an average stat line of 94 catches, 1,228 receiving yards and seven scores over the past five years, Kelce has missed just two games. The six-time Pro Bowler has averaged 134 targets a season over that stretch.

Kelce is everything fantasy managers could want in a player. He’s a critical component of one of the league’s most potent offenses. He’s been robotically productive the past five years. And he’s been durable.

Yes, burning a first-rounder on a tight end means creating a potential weakness at running back or wide receiver. But once the top half-dozen or so backs are gone, the edge Kelce can afford a fantasy roster at tight end is worth that risk.

The closer to the end of Round 1 that Kelce makes it, the more attractive a fantasy option he becomes. If you’re sitting anywhere from the No. 10 to No. 12 spot and Kelce’s available, pulling the trigger isn’t a bad idea at all.

And if you can somehow nab him on the 12/13 turn, just smile and do it. Your draft has started well.

If I do get my Kelce Kraze on in Round 1 (or Yoda willing, early in Round 2) I am absolutely making sure that I have at least one back rostered by the end of Round 2. If Kelce isn’t in the picture, then strong consideration should be given to the seemingly antiquated notion of banging the RB/RB two-fer.

The reason is simple – no matter what draft strategy you employ, there’s going to some risk involved. Risk that needs to be measured relative to the reward for making certain decisions.

The chance of finding value later at wide receiver is better than at running back. It’s a risk worth taking considering the reward you should get for building a formidable backfield with a better chance of living up to their draft slot than backs taken in the later rounds.

Once Round 3 rolls around, there’s a decent chance that it will time to grab that first receiver – say a guy like Thomas, Chicago’s Allen Robinson or Washington’s Terry McLaurin. But if you can pair a top-3 tight end (Kelce, Waller or Kittle) with two dependable ball-carriers, it’s a solid start – significant advantages at two positions and still plenty of wideout meat left on the bone.

KEEP AN EYE ON: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB, Kansas City Chiefs (ADP: 22): As a rookie, Edwards-Helaire was overvalued. But disappointed fantasy managers are undervaluing him this year. He has legitimate RB1 upside available at the back end of the second round.

Rounds 4-6

OK, so at this point we’re hopefully sitting on a pair of bell-cow running backs and a high-end tight end. Or maybe a high-end WR2 with top-10 upside we’ll use to anchor that position.

In any event, it’s time to throw on some gloves and fire up the JUGGS machine – because the focus of this portion of the draft is the wideout position.

When Winks published his study of the efficacy (or lack thereof) of the Zero RB strategy in best-ball formats, he discovered something very interesting about the scoring rates of running backs and wide receiver once you get past the first few rounds.

“RBs average more points than WRs through the first eight or so overall picks, and even when WRs begin to score more points than RBs in the second round of fantasy drafts, the gap between the two positions is narrower here than it is from the third round on,” he said. “When that gap is widest is when we should select WRs over RBs, and that certainly happens the most in the 30th to 80th overall range.”

So, in addition to the odds of hitting on a running back steadily decreasing as you move into the middle rounds of fantasy drafts, the gap in scoring between wide receivers and running backs with similar ADPs is widest in this portion of the draft.

That isn’t to say that running backs should be completely ignored in the middle rounds. If you wait until the seventh round or later to draft a RB3, you’re going to be sifting through a hefty pile of “Zero RB” targets (it’s also a strategy of its own – “Bimodal RB”). Told you there were a lot. Backs in these rounds admittedly carry more risk – but by the next part of the draft you’re essentially just throwing darts.

Before we go any farther, this is also the portion of the draft where many fantasy managers look to draft a starting quarterback.

You don’t want to be that person.

QUARTERBACK QUICKSAND

Patrick Mahomes has already won an NFL MVP, led the Chiefs to two Super Bowls and posted a 5,000/50 season. Josh Allen of the Bills had a breakout 2020 season on the way to leading Buffalo to a 13-3 mark. Lamar Jackson is the only quarterback in NFL history to rush for 1,000 yards in back-to-back years. All three are amazing players.

At their current ADP, you don’t want any of them on your fantasy roster.

Yes, quarterbacks score the most points in most fantasy leagues. But fantasy value isn’t just about scoring points. It’s about how many points a player scores relative to the other options at his position.

It’s a concept known as positional scarcity – and there’s less of it at quarterback than any other position. Most leagues only start one quarterback, and thanks to an influx of young talent in recent years, the number of fantasy-relevant QBs is – not to get too technical, but there are a lot.

Assuming a format that starts one quarterback, two running backs and three wide receivers, the difference between last year’s No. 1 quarterback (Buffalo’s Josh Allen) and the No. 12 quarterback (Atlanta’s Matt Ryan) was seven fantasy points per game.

On the other hand, the difference between the No. 1 PPR running back (Alvin Kamara of the Saints) and the No. 24 back (Kareem Hunt of the Browns) was 11.5 points per game. At wide receiver, the gap from No. 1 (Davante Adams of the Packers) and No. 24 (JuJu Smith-Schuster of the Steelers ) was 11.1 points per game. Bump it down to No. 36 (CeeDee Lamb of the Cowboys) and the number increases to 12.6 points per game.

Draft a QB early, and the hole your team will be in at another position is bigger than the “edge” gained under center – and that assumes that said highly-drafted quarterback actually lives up to his draft slot. The first signal-caller drafted hasn’t finished in that spot in over a decade. Mahomes finished sixth in fantasy points among quarterbacks a year ago. He was QB10 in points before that. The year before that, Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers was the first QB selected. He finished 2018 seventh in points.

Are there exceptions to this rule? Of course. The farther below his ADP a quarterback falls, the more sense it makes to go ahead and pull the trigger. I’ve gotten Russell Wilson of the Seahawks in the eighth round of industry drafts.

But if it’s the sixth round and seven or eight quarterbacks have already been drafted, don’t panic and feel pressured into grabbing one. There’s value to be had at the position late – you could be the last team in a 12-team league to draft a QB and still wind up with a player like Atlanta’s Matt Ryan or Tennessee’s Ryan Tannehill, who has considerable upside.


Essentially, in these rounds you’re looking to add two receivers and a back. The order you do it in can be flexible depending on draft flow, but a trio like Dallas Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb, Atlanta Falcons running back Mike Davis and Carolina Panthers wideout D.J. Moore offers some solid upside at receiver and good depth in the backfield.

There are three tight ends coming off the board in this range – Baltimore’s Mark Andrews, Atlanta’s Kyle Pitts and Detroit’s T.J. Hockenson. All three are solid weekly starters, but their fantasy ceilings (with the exception of Pitts) aren’t much better than guys available later.

KEEP AN EYE ON: Mike Davis, RB, Atlanta Falcons (ADP: 58): Davis was a top-12 fantasy back last year in Carolina and from all indications will get a heavy workload in his new home as well. He’s an ideal RB3 or “Flex” pick.

Rounds 7-9

At this point, your roster should include three running backs, two or three receivers and maybe a tight end. It’s a great start to a draft, but there’s still work to be done. This is also where things really open up. There are innumerable directions you can go in, so things become a lot more fluid. There are, however, some priorities to bear in mind. The first is to either acquire a starting tight end or the third starter at receiver, whichever is still left on the old “to do” list.

It’s possible (albeit not especially likely) that Hockenson could tumble to the front of this stretch, but it’s more likely that you’ll be sifting through the likes of Washington’s Logan Thomas or Denver’s Noah Fant. The ceilings aren’t great, but the price points are reasonable.

The pickings are a little better at wide receiver. Denver’s Courtland Sutton topped 1,000 receiving yards and finished inside the Top 20 in PPR points two years ago – he’s available in the middle of Round 7 on average.

Priority No. 2 is rounding out some backfield depth. The backs available this late aren’t going to inspire cartwheels – Damien Harris plays in the running back hell that is New England and hasn’t been a factor in the passing game. Arizona’s James Conner has an uncertain role on his new team. But if backs in this range never hit, Zero RB wouldn’t be a thing – and there’s no such thing as too many RBs.

Finally, unless you are comfortable being one of the last managers in your league to draft a quarterback and/or comfortable with streaming matchup plays under center, it’s time to hit that position. This isn’t to say that you can’t wait even longer to grab a QB depending on how your draft plays out, but by Round 10 you’ll be looking at guys like the aforementioned Ryan and Tannehill.

KEEP AN EYE ON: Robby Anderson, WR, Carolina Panthers (ADP: 94): Anderson set career highs in catches and receiving yards last year and already has a rapport with Sam Darnold from their time together in New York. He has the makings of, at the least, a cheaply available WR3.

Rounds 10+

This is the part of the draft where it’s party time. The foundation of a winning team has been laid. There’s nothing you can do in the double-digit rounds that can screw that up.

There are, however, a few things to keep in mind late in drafts.

The first is to prioritize youth and upside (for the most part) over low-ceiling veterans. TY Hilton of the Colts has had a very nice NFL career. But he’s not the player he once was, and he’ll be lucky to finish inside the top-40 wideouts. Younger players like Jacksonville’s Laviska Shenault or Henry Ruggs of the Raiders have a better chance of being the sort of impact bargain that matters in fantasy.

The second thing to remember is that handcuff s can be your friend. (Don’t look at me like that. Figuratively, you deviant.) Not every running back is worth handcuffing, but Tony Pollard of the Cowboys and Alexander Mattison of the Vikings have shown they can produce if called on.

The final thing is simple and straight forward. In the overwhelming majority of leagues, your last two picks should be a defense and a kicker. Those positions just aren’t worth spending any real draft capital on, so don’t waste it.

KEEP AN EYE ON: Mike Williams, WR, Los Angeles Chargers (ADP: 144): Williams has shown some ability to put up numbers in the past, and Bolts OC Joe Lombardi said the fi fthyear veteran will be a big part of L.A.’s offense in 2021.