Running Backs Do Matter 2022

The zero running backs strategy for fantasy football drafts has been around for nearly a decade. The idea behind this concept is that NFL’s continual trend towards increased passing volume, when combined with the growing popularity of PPR leagues, has spiked the value of quarterbacks, wide receivers, and tight ends and, by proxy, decreased the value of running backs in fantasy football.

Fantasy managers who use this policy will stack their draft day roster with wide receivers, quarterbacks, or tight ends in at least the first six rounds and will then stock their rosters with second tier and/or backup ball carriers whose value will spike when injuries start hitting this position as the season progresses.

The stat trends certainly backed up that assessment 12 years ago. From 2002, the first year the NFL had 32 teams, until 2010, fantasy leagues only had one or two quarterbacks per year who scored 300+ points. In that same span, there were between 8-12 fantasy wide receivers who tallied 250+ PPR points per year in every campaign and an average of just over two tight ends per season posting 200-plus PPR points.

Now contrast those figures to the volume of running backs racking up 200-plus PPR points.

The running back PPR scoring pace was showing a downward trend that seemed to level off in 2011-13, when there were 16, 16, and 17 running backs with 200-plus PPR points, but then the bottom dropped out when there were only 11 RBs with 200-plus PPR points in both the 2014 and 2015 seasons.

That caliber of decline left running back values at an all-time low in fantasy football and that value disparity became even larger when noting the increased scoring pace at other positions in 2011-15.

This showed up at each of the other three main fantasy football positions.

Quarterbacks w/300-plus points

Wide receivers with 250-plus PPR points

Tight ends with 200-plus PPR points

Prior to these years, fantasy drafts typically wouldn’t have an early run on quarterbacks or tight ends because there were only one or two of them worth selecting in the early rounds, but with the spike to 5-7 quality prospects in most years it made sense to start bypassing running backs in earlier rounds and investing more in quarterbacks and tight ends.

That spike also occurred for wide receivers, as instead of the 8-12 topflight PPR scorers as this position, there were 14-15, thus providing more depth to justify a zero-running back philosophy.

A big factor in this scoring increase is that the shift to more passing volume also moved more touchdowns into the aerial column.

Look at number of touchdowns scored by passing and rushing in each season from 2002-15 (statistics courtesy Pro Football Reference):

The percent of passing touchdowns stayed steady at roughly 59-62 percent from 2002-09, with an occasional spike here and there, but from 2011-15 the numbers moved up to 65 percent and then kept going, finally capping out at a staggering 69.8 percent in 2015.

Those percentages also extended to red-zone touchdown distribution.

This chart shows the volume of red-zone touchdowns and the percentages that rushing and passing touchdowns accounted for. Rushing touchdowns tallied nearly half of red-zone touchdowns from 2002-08, but then that number started dropping off notably and fell to an incredibly low 35.7 percent in 2015.

The far right column on that chart shows what percent of total touchdowns occurred on red-zone touchdowns. For example, in 2002, red-zone scores accounted for 71.4 percent of all touchdowns. This percentage stayed very steady during this time frame, as it stayed between 70.6 and 73.0 percent in all but one season (74.9 percent in 2008).

These metrics all indicate that by 2015, unless you had a running back capable of catching touchdown passes on your fantasy team, it was very hard to justify taking many running backs with early round picks. The game had become so pass-centric that a zero running back strategy arguably offered unmatched upside.

A change of direction

Had things stayed like they were in 2015, a zero running back strategy would still be a great way to go, but the statistical pendulum has swung back in the other direction.

Let’s start illustrating this with the overall touchdown distribution from 2016-2022

The consecutive years with 37-plus percent rushing touchdowns doesn’t quite return us to the more run-centric campaigns of 2002-08, but they are a far cry from the depths that were seen in 2013-15. That these numbers have continued at their current level for consecutive years also suggests that this may not be an anomaly, especially considering the percentage increases that preceded these figures in 2016-19.

What drives this point home even further is the red-zone touchdown numbers.

The red-zone percentage of total touchdowns had spiked over 73 percent only once from 2002-15, but it has topped that number five times in the past six years and reached an incredible 77.4 percent in 2021.

Keep that in mind when noting that the red-zone rushing touchdown percentage had fallen below the 40 percent mark for three straight years in 2013-15, but it has since spiked back over 40 percent in five of the past six years. It also topped the 43 percent mark twice in that span, something that hadn’t occurred since 2009. This means teams are leaning on the run more in the red zone at the same time that red-zone scores are reaching new highs.

Now let’s look at how these trends have impacted the volume of quality starters at each position over the past six seasons.

Quarterbacks with 300-plus points

Wide receivers with 250-plus PPR points

Tight ends with 200-plus PPR points

For quarterbacks, the drop-off in passing has been offset by the addition of many rushing quarterbacks who don’t need a huge pass volume to hit the 300-point mark. That has led to two straight seasons with 11 quarterbacks scoring 300-plus points, thus indicating this is a position you should not be investing early round picks in.

The wide receiver spike to 14-15 per year posting a 250-plus PPR-point level was a short-term upgrade, as those numbers have now fallen to much lower levels. It’s possible to justify some early round picks at this position, but there isn’t enough depth here to warrant stocking up.

The volume of tight ends scoring 200-plus points has fallen back to the point that you either want to get one of the top three players at this position if the draft value is right, or you will want to wait until later rounds to grab a solid TE1, as there just isn’t enough depth here for most fantasy managers to ride out a draft run at this position.

Now contrast these to the volume of running backs posting 200-plus PPR points.

This increase doesn’t bring the running back position back to where it was back in 2002, but the volume over the past four years is roughly equal to the volume around 2010-13, so the number of solid starter-caliber running backs is returning to a strong state.

When this trend is compared to the trends noted in the other three major fantasy football positions, it is clear that bypassing running backs altogether in early rounds means passing up far too much potential value to draft player at positions that can no longer justify that type of relative stockpiling.

The bottom line -- in today’s fantasy football world, running backs still matter.