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Strength of schedule and breakout predictor 2017 Part 3
By Adam Hall
Who you should target
This model allows us to find who has the easiest path to success and which teams are most likely to have a breakout candidate amongst them. This article runs down a slew of my favorite players to target this year based on the statistics. Many of these will be values, or individuals that you may feel uncertain about. The good news is that many of them will be so cheap that it will cost you nearly nothing to pick them up. I’ll refer to “spread scores” in this article. That is simply referring to the scores in my statistics depicting how easy or difficult their schedule is. Higher scores indicate easier schedules, negative scores indicate harder schedules. Each player in the following lists have an opportunity to outplay their ADP substantially.All players are organized according to my favorite players to target, the farther down the list the lower priority they are for me; although every player in these lists have an above average opportunity to outperform their draft positions. The rationale behind these choices are a combination of spread scores, average draft position bargain, offensive line, and overall opportunity (overall team, opportunity to start, and historical productivity, injury risk).
WR
Expensive players from teams with easy schedules
1. Julio Jones—Spread Scores: Passing: 8.3 (rank: 2)ADP: 4.5—1.05
2. Doug Baldwin—Spread Scores: Passing: .75 (rank: 12)
ADP: 23—2.10
3. Terrelle Pryor —Spread Scores: Passing: .15 (rank: 13)
ADP: 26-3.02
4. Tyreek Hill—Spread Scores: Passing: 5.3 (rank: 6)
ADP: 38--4.01
5. Brandon Cooks—Spread Scores: Passing: 4.6 (rank: 8)
ADP: 24-2.11
Undervalued starters
1. Kelvin Benjamin—Spread Scores: Passing: 6.35 (rank: 4)ADP: 53—5.04
2. Steffon Diggs—Spread Scores: Passing: .85 (rank: 10)
ADP: 63—6.02
3. Cole Beasley—Spread Scores: Passing: 4.85 (rank: 7)
ADP: 137—11.11
4. Jordan Matthews—Spread Scores: Passing: .8 (rank: 11)
ADP: 110--10.01
5. Demaryius Thomas—Spread Scores: Passing: 11.05 (rank: 1)
ADP: 32—3.07
6. Alshon Jeffrey—Spread Scores: Passing: 3.6 (rank: 9)
ADP: 36—4.01
7. Devante Parker—Spread Scores: Passing: 6.1 (rank: 5)
ADP: 87—8.01
8. Emmanuel Sanders—Spread Scores: Passing: 11.05 (rank: 1)
ADP: 72—6.12
9. Jarvis Landry—Spread Scores: Passing: 6.1 (rank: 5)
ADP: 50—5.02
10. Julian Edelman—Spread Scores: Passing: 4.6 (rank: 8)
ADP: 54—5.06
Lottery tickets with a great opportunity
1. Zay Jones—Spread Scores: Passing: .8 (rank: 11)ADP: 141—12.02
2. Chris Conley—Spread Scores: Passing: 5.3 (rank: 6)
ADP: Undrafted
3. Josh Doctson—Spread Scores: Passing: .15 (rank: 13)
ADP: 145—12.07
4. Torrey Smith—Spread Scores: Passing: 3.6 (rank:9)
ADP: Undrafted
5. Tyler Lockett—Spread Scores: Passing: .75 (rank: 12)
ADP: 176—13.12
6. Paul Richardson—Spread Scores: Passing: .75 (rank: 12)
ADP: Undrafted
7. Malcolm Mitchel—Spread Scores: Passing: 4.6 (rank: 8)
ADP: Undrafted
8. Kenny Stills—Spread Score: Passing: 6.1 (rank: 5)
ADP: 197—14.07
RB
Expensive players from teams with easy schedules
1. Christian McCaffery—Spread Score: Rushing: 8.2 (Rank: 4)ADP: 29—3.04
2. Joe Mixon—Spread Score: Rushing: 4 (Rank: 8)
ADP: 40—4.03
3. Marshawn Lynch—Spread Score: Rushing: 1.2 (Rank: 12/13)
ADP: 31—3.07
4. Lesean McCoy—Spread Score: Rushing: 3 (Rank: 9)
ADP: 6—1.06
5. Melvin Gordon—Spread Score: Rushing: 4.3 (Rank: 5/6)
ADP: 10—1.10
6. Demarco Murray—Spread Score: Rushing: 2.28 (Rank: 10)
ADP: 13—2.01
7. Dalvin Cook—Spread Score: Rushing: 2.23 (Rank: 11)
ADP: 35—3.10
Undervalued starters
1. Blial Powell—Spread Score: Rushing: 17.1 (Rank: 1)ADP: 58—5.09
2. Terrance West—Spread Score: Rushing: 9 (Rank: 3)
ADP: 85—8.01
3. Adrian Peterson—Spread Score: Rushing: 4.08 (Rank: 7)
ADP: 67—6.04
4. Derick Henry—Spread Score: Rushing: 2.28 (Rank: 10)
ADP: 81—7.09
5. Danny Woodhead—Spread Score: Rushing: 9 (Rank: 3)
ADP: 46—4.08
6. Mark Ingram—Spread Score: Rushing: 4.08 (Rank: 7)
ADP: 62—5.12
7. Mike Gillislee—Spread Score: Rushing: 11.5 (Rank: 2)
ADP: 56—5.06
8. CJ Anderson—Spread Score: Rushing: 1.2 (Rank: 12/13)
ADP: 61--5.11
Lottery Tickets with great opportunities:
1. James White—Spread Score: Rushing: 11.5 (Rank: 2)ADP: 117—10.07
2. Kareem Hunt—Spread Score: Rushing: 4.3 (Rank:5/6)
ADP: 94—8.08
3. Alvin Kamara—Spread Score: Rushing: 4.08 (Rank: 7)
ADP: 170--13.11
4. Johnathan Williams—Spread Score: Rushing: 3 (Rank: 9)
ADP: 161—13.07
5. Johnathan Stewart—Spread Score: Rushing: 8.2 (Rank: 4)
ADP: 112—10.01
6. Giovani Bernard—Spread Score: Rushing: 4 (Rank: 8)
ADP: 151—12.12
7. Jeremy Hill—Spread Score: Rushing: 4 (Rank: 8)
ADP: 144—12.06
8. Latavius Murray—Spread Score: Rushing: 2.23 (Rank: 11)
ADP: 142—12.04
9. Rex Burkhead—Spread Score: Rushing: 11.5 (Rank: 2)
ADP: 165—13.09
10. Deangelo Henderson—Spread Score: Rushing: 1.2 (Rank: 12/13)
ADP: 158—13.05
11. Elijah Hood—Spread Score: Rushing: 1.2 (Rank: 12/13)
ADP: Undrafted
TE
Expensive players from teams with easy schedules
1. Rob Gronkowski—Spread Score: Passing: 4.6 (rank: 8)ADP: 20—2.08
2. Greg Olsen—Spread Score: Passing: 6.35 (rank: 4)
ADP: 51—5.02
3. Travis Kelce—Spread Score: Passing: 5.3 (rank: 6)
ADP: 39—4.02
4. Jimmy Graham—Spread Score: Passing: .75 (rank: 12)
ADP: 59—5.10
5. Jordan Reed—Spread Score: Passing: .15 (rank: 13)
ADP: 55-5.06
Undervalued starters
1. Austin Hooper—Spread Score: Passing: 8.3 (rank: 2)ADP: 163—13.07
2. Charles Clay—Spread Score: Passing: .8 (rank: 11)
ADP: Undrafted
3. Zach Ertz—Spread Score: Passing: 3.6 (rank: 9)
ADP: 102—9.02
4. Kyle Rudolph—Spread Score: Passing: .85 (rank: 10)
ADP: 88—8.01
Lottery Tickets with great opportunities:
1. Jason Witten—Spread Score: Passing: 4.85 (rank: 7)ADP: 166—13.09
2. Julius Thomas—Spread Score: Passing: 6.1 (rank: 5)
ADP: 169—13.10
3. Austin Seferian-Jenkins—Spread Score: Passing: 8 (rank: 3)
ADP: 202—14.07
4. Rico Gathers—Spread Score: Passing: 4.85 (rank: 7)
ADP: Undrafted
5. Dwayne Allen—Spread Score: Passing: 4.6 (rank: 8)
ADP: 178—13.12
6. Jake Butt—Spread Score: Passing: 11.05 (rank: 1)
ADP: Undrafted
7. A.J. Derby—Spread Score: Passing: 11.05 (rank: 1)
ADP: Undrafted
* All ADP values come from fantasyfootballcalculator.com and are assuming a 12 team PPR league