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You’re On the Clock: Ezekiel Elliott
By Armando Marsal
Being in the limelight might be something that some athletes enjoy, however, when the attention is mainly negative, it can become quite the opposite. Ezekiel Elliott continues to get buzz, but for all the wrong reasons. He is dealing with a domestic violence allegation, an alleged assault, and is reportedly appealing a misdemeanor conviction for speeding where he was clocked going 100 MPH. Needless to say, it has been a very bad offseason for him off of the field. At this point, it appears that a suspension is imminent, which may lead to fantasy owners having a tough decision on draft day.
To draft or not to draft Elliott in the first round?
This is a question many fantasy owners will be asking themselves come draft day. Before answering this question, several things have to be considered. First and foremost, if Elliott is indeed suspended, how long is the suspension? If you look at the chart below, you can get an idea of what exactly you are losing on a week-to-week basis.
As you can see, Elliott was very efficient, finishing eighth in fantasy points per game in standard formats and tied for fourth in PPR formats. This was amongst all players including quarterbacks. Let’s assume that he averages similar numbers to his rookie season and pencil him in 20 fantasy points per game to make math easier. If he misses, say four games (I believe there is a chance he misses more than that), at this point you have lost 80 fantasy points for the season and in the first four weeks, which can put you in a bind to start the season. Had he scored 80 fewer fantasy points last season, he would have dropped from the fifth overall scorer in PPR formats to 36th, which is a sizeable drop. At his position, he would have gone from RB2 to RB8. Granted, he is still considered an RB1, but the amount of fantasy points you lose is significant.
You are probably analyzing this chart and saying to yourself, if Le’Veon Bell was able to finish with as many fantasy points as he did after missing four games why can’t Elliott? My answer is Bell is just that good and although I think Elliott is a beast, Bell is just on a different level in my opinion. Let’s take a look at Tom Brady who also missed four games. He finished 27th in overall rankings even though he had one of his better seasons if you look closely at the numbers. He averaged 296.2 yards per game which is the fifth highest he has averaged throughout his NFL career, a 67.4 completion percentage which is the second highest, and 8.2 yards per attempt which is the third highest of his career. Despite those numbers he finished 15th amongst quarterbacks. Had he played a full season, he would have finished third amongst quarterbacks and in the overall rankings.
Another thing to consider is the level of competition in your league. If you are in a very sharp league or even a very competitive league, taking Elliott in the first round despite his suspension can be a big mistake. In a much softer league, I can see the warrant in doing so as you can make up ground in the mid-rounds, but that will not be the case in a tough league.
Understanding your league settings is also crucial when you are on the clock. The number of weeks that your league runs for will be another determining factor. In most cases leagues run about 13 weeks and assuming he is suspended for four games, he will miss roughly 31 percent of your regular season games. That is a decent portion of your fantasy season and missing such a big producer early on can be the difference of a playoff berth or not.