The Hunter Report - DFS Week 4

Consistency. That’s what seasonal DFS salary-cap leagues are all about. If you can build a consistent and productive lineup over the 17-week NFL season, you’ll have a great shot of sticking around for the big bucks at the end. There’s no guarantee, of course, but you can’t have too many stinker output weeks like I did in Week 2.

So far, I’ve scored 191.18 (Week 1 winner), 94.4 and 133.92 over the first three weeks of the season. Sure, it was nice to win Week 1 and get my entry fee back, plus a bit more, although my horrific Week 2 showing really pushes me down in the rankings. Right now, I’m sitting in 14th place out of 46 teams for the year. I’ll take it for now, although no more sub-100 point weeks, right?

Congratulations to FantasyFeud.com Week 3 winner “Fast_N_Loose”, who netted 225.04 points! Wow-zers. I thought my 191.18 Week 1 was super-dee-duper, but nope.

Here was my Week 3 lineup (33rd place for the week) so you can see where I went wrong:

QB – Tyrod Taylor, BUF
QB – Jameis Winston, TB
RB – Giovani Bernard, CIN
RB – Ameer Abdullah, DET
WR – Julian Edelman, NE
WR – Antonio Brown, PIT
TE – Zach Ertz, PHI
FLEX – Terrance Williams, DAL
FLEX – Amari Cooper, OAK
DEF – Arizona Cardinals

My running back production and Terrence Williams destroyed any chance of a good showing for me. And, I have to say I might be done with Zach Ertz for awhile – dude needs to show us something, eh? Thank goodness for the Arizona Cardinals, otherwise I’d be suffering mightily after Week 3.

If you’ve been following me since the beginning of the year, you’ll notice I’ve been inconsistent with my flex slots; however, I’m starting to lean heavily towards using wide receivers in those slots from here on out. Pass-catching running backs make sense too considering the half-point per catch factor in FantasyFeud.com leagues, although there’s been more consistent production from the WR slot in my estimations.

On to Week 4! Good luck!

Bye Week: Tennessee Titans; New England Patriots


QUARTERBACK

Top Level

Andrew Luck, IND vs. Jacksonville Jaguars ($140,100) – Sure, I could slot Aaron Rodgers in here if I wanted to, but I hate the idea of building around his $160-plus K salary. I mean, that’s some big bucks for one player, isn’t it? Luck’s price isn’t a good value by any means, although if I’m a DFS owner that insists on building around a top-tier QB then I like the matchup Luck has against the Jaguars. And, I really dig how the Colts offense came together in Week 3 in the second half. Luck is still the man.

Other choices: Cam Newton, CAR @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($142,100); Matt Ryan, ATL vs. Houston Texans ($139,200)

Mid-Range

Andy Dalton, CIN vs. Kansas City Chiefs ($129,800) – It looks like 2015 may be Daltons’ breakout season, averaging 288.7 PYG to go along with 8 TD passes. And, let’s not forget about Dalton’s lone rushing TD. The Chiefs are brutal against the pass so far this year, allowing quarterbacks to have their way at will. Dalton and A.J. Green as a one-two hookup is a fantastic idea.

Other choices: Derek Carr, OAK @ Chicago Bears ($127,600); Drew Brees, NO vs. Dallas Cowboys ($121,300)

Value

Kirk Cousins, WAS vs. Philadelphia Eagles ($101,200) – For the price, I don’t think you can find a better value at QB this week with the potential that Cousins has in the Redskins offense. I’m looking at this game as a high-scoring affair, one that will land in the high-20’s/early-30 for both clubs. I see Cousins getting a nice piece of the action. Don’t you?

Other choices: Ryan Mallet, HOU @ Atlanta Falcons ($103,500)

Over-Value

Carson Palmer, ARI vs. St. Louis Rams ($143,200) – You’re tempted to roster Palmer, aren’t you? Me too, until I crunched the numbers some and realized that the Rams haven’t been too bad against the pass this season. I’m not saying completely avoid Palmer; just don’t seek him out as a top-level play for your lineups. I won’t be surprised if Palmer is limited to 220 yards and 1-to-2 TD – not worth $143.2 K.


RUNNING BACK

Top Level

Adrian Peterson, MIN @ Denver Broncos ($140,300) – I’m really not excited about paying top dollar for running backs this week but if I’m going to do so Peterson is my guy. If I’m a betting man – we all know that I am – I like AP to score once and to get close to the 100-yard mark. I’d rather put my dollars towards wide receivers in Week 4.

Other choices: None

Mid-Range

Latavius Murray, OAK @ Chicago Bears ($124,300) – Murray is another player that I’m leaving right here in his spot from last week, although now we see a nice $11 K bump up in salary. He’s still worth the price tag, and a decent value at a mid-range price. Expect Murray to net a bunch of touches in the Raiders’ offense, as they face a Bears club that is currently being dismantled by management. Don’t be surprised to see Murray find the end zone twice in Week 3.

Other choices: Frank Gore, IND vs. Jacksonville Jaguars ($116,500); Devonta Freeman, ATL vs. Houston Texans ($114,600)

Value

Arian Foster, HOU @ Atlanta Falcons ($108,800) – Okay, I’m going to leave Foster here from the same spot I suggested him last week. It’s looking like he WILL be back this week, although don’t kill me if you roster him and he sits and you forget to swap him out. Maybe you’re not the adventurous type and you have to be certain now that he’s playing? Still, there is plenty of time to swap him out if he sits. I’m praying that Foster suits up as he faces the worst defense in the league against running backs. I love Foster in Week 3.

Other choices: Joseph Randle, DAL @ New Orleans Saints ($112,400)

Over-Value

Matt Forte, CHI vs. Oakland Raiders ($125,200) – As much as I like Forte, I’m worried about the Bears offense moving forward and $125.2 K is a bit steep for me facing a resurgent Raiders club. Forte can certainly take a game upon his shoulders, so there’s always that, although I’m confident he won’t earn his price tag.


WIDE RECEIVER

Top Level

A.J. Green, CIN vs. Kansas City Chiefs ($134,800) – I bet you never could’ve guessed I’d recommend Green this week. Ahem. The Chiefs can’t stop wide receivers this season, giving up 9 TD through the air to this point. Plus, Green is playing like a superhero. I really consider Green a value-play at WR, even at the $134.8 K price tag. Don’t be shy about slotting Green into your lineup. You can thank me next week.

Other choices: DeAndre Hopkins, HOU @ Atlanta Falcons ($127,300); Amari Cooper, OAK @ Chicago Bears ($124,700)

Mid-Range

T.Y. Hilton, IND vs. Jacksonville Jaguars ($104,500) – It’s not going to be long before Andrew Luck and Hilton are connecting often downfield. Hilton is getting himself healthy, while Luck is finally starting to click with his offense. You really can’t blame Luck, however, considering the woes of the Colts’ offensive line. This is a favorable matchup for Hilton facing the Jaguars at an attractive price. Why, yes, in fact, we do have ANOTHER value in the non-value sections! Woo-hoo.

Other choices: Allen Robinson, JAC @ Indianapolis Colts ($111,800)

Value

Percy Harvin, BUF vs. New York Giants ($80,800) – Are you as surprised as I am that Harvin has averaged over 12 FPPG over the first three weeks? Maybe it’s that consistency thing I’ve been preaching about, huh? I’ll take it from Harvin. The Giants have only allowed pass TD this season, so that’s not exactly favorable for Harvin. Still, I can’t help but dig Harvin this week. He’s still an exciting player that can change the flow of a game on one play.

Other choices: Pierre Garcon, WAS vs. Philadelphia Eagles ($85,600)

Over-Value

Randall Cobb, GB @ San Francisco 49ers ($129,800) – I know, I could regret avoiding Cobb this week. I just have a difficult time with Cobb earning his salary this week after his 3-TD performance versus the Chiefs on Monday night. If anything, Cobb is a borderline play. I’d be willing to slot him in if his salary was about $10 K lower.


TIGHT END

Top Level

Greg Olsen, CAR @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($115,600)

Mid-Range

Jason Witten, DAL @ New Orleans Saints ($88,600)

Value

Owen Daniels, DEN vs. Minnesota Vikings ($55,600)

Over-Value

Jordan Reed, WAS vs. Philadelphia Eagles ($98,800)


Good luck in Week 4! Feel free to stalk me on Twitter: @TheRolyPolyBoy