Week 14: Three And OutThree DFS players I'm investing heavily in this week. ... And one I'm not.
By Bob Harris
I'm In
Jameis Winston, QB, Tampa Bay
This just in: The Saints are currently on pace to shatter the NFL record for touchdown passes allowed in a season. They have given up 35 -- and the NFL record is 40. They still have four games left to play. First up is Winston. While offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter intends to continue rolling with a run-heavy attack led by Doug Martin, Winston will benefit from an increasingly healthy receiving corps, with Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson joined by Austin Seferian-Jenkins, who should be a bigger factor in his second game back from a shoulder injury. As numberFire.com pointed out, the Saints have surrendered seven top-five weekly quarterback performances in 12 games played and Winston showed what he's capable of against generous defenses in Philadelphia a couple weeks back. In addition, the 50.5-point over/under is attractive as well. So is the price. Winston goes for $7,800 on FanDuel and $5,500 on DraftKings.
Shaun Draughn, RB, San Francisco
Another matchup driven pick. ... No team ranks worse against the run than Cleveland. As numberFire.com pointed out, that's completely translated to fantasy, too -- nine running backs have finished as top-15 weekly options against the Browns in PPR leagues this season. That's nine out of 12 games. Meanwhile, Draughn recorded his first touchdown with the 49ers on a one-yard run in the second quarter of last Sunday's win at Chicago. The touchdown was the third of his career and first since scoring for the Kansas City Chiefs on Nov. 1, 2012. Better still, Draughn has been heavily targeted by Blaine Gabbert and has finished with 4, 8, 5 and 5 catches over the last four games giving him a solid PPR floor. In fact, he's finished no worse than the 16th best running back in PPR formats over that span. He's also playing close to 90 percent of the team's snaps. This week, a confluence of opportunity, matchup and price -- $6,500 on FanDuel and $4,800 on DraftKings -- will float your boat.
Sammy Watkins, WR, Buffalo
More match-up sweetness. ... Watkins' three catches for 109 yards made him far and away the top performer among the Bills' group of receivers two weeks ago. It was a similar story to the first half of last week's loss to the Chiefs, when Watkins had six catches for 158 yards. Watkins' performance again backed up what he said earlier this season: Even when he's covered, throw him the ball. He'll catch it. This week he goes up against an Eagles defense that has allowed 18 passing touchdowns in the past five games. Twelve of those have gone to opposing wideouts. According to ESPN.com, that's four more than any other team since Week 9. Yes, Byron Maxwell fared well against the Patriots last week, but that hasn't been the norm. At $7,200 on FanDuel and $6,100 on DraftKings you'll want to load up on Sammy.
I'm Out
Julio Jones, WR, Atlanta
Although Jones, who leads the league with 102 receptions for 1,338 yards, has been targeted a league-high 159 times, touchdown production has been an issue. If you're wondering he hasn't been targeted even more in scoring position, join the club (Jones did this week when he complained about a lack of red-zone looks). Jones has been targeted 19 times in the red zone this season and has four red-zone touchdowns on 10 receptions. He has been targeted 12 times in goal-to-go situations, with four touchdowns on six catches. He has not been targeted despite running seven goal-to-go routes over the past three games. Adding to the intrigue this week, Jones goes up against the Panthers and shutdown corner Josh Norman. The good news? Profootballfocus.com notes that Jones lines up in the slot on roughly 30 percent of his pass routes, so he won't be covered exclusively by Norman. That said, Atlanta's offensive struggles and shadow coverage from Norman 70 percent of the time have to be of at least some concern -- especially given the price. Jones is $8,800 on FanDuel and $4,800 on DraftKings.
A few others I have in multiple lineups this week: Buffalo QB Tyrod Taylor (see Sammy Watkins above); Tampa Bay RB Doug Martin (I'm willing to pay for the chance to make more hay vs. New Orleans' defense); Seattle RB Thomas Rawls (Beast Mode Too); Cincinnati RB Jeremy Hill (don't look now, but the touches are there again); Tennessee WR Dorial Green-Beckham (starting to pick up the pace and the price is right as a tournament play); Miami WR DeVante Parker (I know the Dolphins are running more, but the rookie is suddenly emerging as a legitimate playmaker and he's still reasonably priced).