Week 15: Three And OutThree DFS players I'm investing heavily in this week. ... And one I'm not.
By Bob Harris
I'm In
Matthew Stafford, QB, Golden Tate, WR, Lions (the Bargain Stack)
This just in: The Saints defense is not great. And by not great, I mean really bad. ... How bad? As ESPN.com pointed out this week, they've allowed the most 300-yard passers this season, the most touchdown passes and they're tied for the second-fewest interceptions. Better still, Monday night's game has an over/under of 51 points, the highest this week. Stafford ($6,100 on DraftKings and $X on FanDuel) has averaged 38 passing attempts over his last six games, and if he has that sort of passing volume against New Orleans, the numbers will follow. Meanwhile, Tate ($5,500 on DraftKings and $6,900 on FanDuel) has double-digit targets in three of the last four games and, according to ESPN.com, he leads all players in red zone receptions while being second in red zone targets in the past four.
Carson Palmer, QB, Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Cardinals
Palmer ($7,000 on DraftKings and $8,700 on FanDuel) threw for 310 yards and his 30th and 31st touchdowns of the season in Week 14, setting a franchise record for most touchdown passes in a season. He broke Kurt Warner’s record of 30 set in 2008. Palmer is 25-3 in his last 28 starts. In that time, he has completed 64.4 percent of his passes for 7,892 yards, 58 touchdowns and 20 interceptions. In his last 17 starts, the Cardinals are 16-2. Palmer has 38 touchdowns, 14 interceptions and 5,075 yards in that period. In addition, the Eagles have allowed more passing touchdowns, the third-most passing yardage and the most points to opposing fantasy QBs since their Week 8 bye. I'm stacking with Fitzgerald ($7,300 on DraftKings and $7,200 on FanDuel). Although Fitzgerald has only two scores during his past 10 games, Profootballfocus.com notes that he's averaged 9.3 targets per game during the first three games and sits at 9.6 per game since. In addition, Fitzgerald has scored 11 touchdowns against the Eagles in seven career games. A year ago, he had seven receptions for 160 yards and a touchdown. A safety, Malcolm Jenkins plays the slot corner in nickel situations. That could work in the veteran receiver's favor.
Russell Wilson, QB, Doug Baldwin, WR, Seahawks
Wilson's past four games have been remarkable. He's thrown for 1,171 yards, completed 75.4 percent of his throws, thrown 16 touchdowns and had zero interceptions with a passer rating of 138.5 or higher each of those four weeks. Meanwhile, Baldwin had another big game with six catches for 82 yards and three touchdowns. In the last five games, Baldwin has 30 receptions for 515 yards and nine touchdowns (for the season he has 61 for 860 and 11). He's getting open on a consistent basis, and Wilson is finding him. In fact, Wilson ($7,000 on DraftKings and $8,800 on FanDuel) and Baldwin ($5,800 on DraftKings and $7,400 on FanDuel) are the most productive quarterback-wide receiver combination in the league during the past month. This week, they host a Cleveland defense that has allowed more than 208 receiving yards per game (third most since Week 8) and nine receiving touchdowns to opposing wide receivers in the past six.
I'm Out
Darren McFadden, RB, Cowboys
Excuse me. ... Can I borrow your ten-foot pole? Because I don't want to sully mine by touching DMC with it. ... Over the last few weeks there has been a discussion of McFadden ($4,900 on DraftKings and $6,800 on FanDuel) hitting a wall, but the truth is he's been more up and down than flatline. After being limited to 32 yards against the Buccaneers, he came back 129 yards on 29 carries against the Dolphins the following week. He did it again Sunday, picking up 111 yards on nine carries against the Packers after being limited to 64 yards on 24 carries the previous two weeks combined. So if he wasn't already due for a down week after showing up in Green Bay, the fact is he faces a Jets defense that has allowed just two rushing touchdowns this season. And according to ESPN.com, they've allowed an average of just 36.7 rushing yards in their past three games. Yeah. I'm looking elsewhere.
A few others I'll be rolling with this week: If the Palmer-Fitzgerald stack is a little too pricey for you, Michael Floyd might work out better; TE Delanie Walker continues to serve as the Titans de facto WR1; Denard Robinson will fill in for T.J. Yeldon against the Falcons and he's a bargain; Saints wideout Willie Snead is reasonably priced and did I mention that Saints-Lions over/under?