Week 18: Three And OutThree DFS players I'm investing heavily in this week. ... And one I'm not.
By Bob Harris
I'm In
Three DFS plays I'm investing heavily in this week. ... And one player I'm not.
Kirk Cousins, QB, Jordan Reed, TE, Washington Redskins
A few numbers, courtesy ESPN.com's John Keim: Cousins' passer rating in the first quarter in the past four games is 152.7. In that time, Cousins ($5,900 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel) has completed 34-of-39 passes for 444 yards, six touchdowns and no interceptions. Cousins’ passer rating when under duress in the past five games is 105.9, putting him fifth in the NFL during this period, which is a positive since the Packers do a good job against quarterbacks in this area. Meanwhile, CBSSports.com notes the Packers have allowed multiple touchdowns to the past three quarterbacks who have attempted at least 27 passes. Cousins has attempted at least 27 passes in six of his past seven starts, with the lone exception in Week 17, when he left early. And how will they handle Cousins' most dangerous weapon, Reed? Versatile defensive back Micah Hyde figures to shadow the star tight end. As the Sports Xchange suggested this week, the edge goes to the dynamic Reed ($6,300 on DraftKings, $7,400 on FanDuel), who set team records in his third pro season with 87 catches and 952 receiving yards to go with 11 touchdown receptions.
A.J. Green, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
The last time Green ($7,500 on DraftKings, $8,300 on FanDuel) went up against the Steelers, he caught five passes for 115 yards last month, including a 66-yard touchdown from AJ McCarron, who came on in relief of Andy Dalton, who injured his thumb that day. In his last four games against the Steelers, Green has 36 catches for 556 yards with three touchdowns. Worried about McCarron, who will be making his first career playoff start? He threw for 280 yards in that game last month. Two big INTs aside, nothing McCarron did that day -- or since -- suggests he can't get the ball to Green.
Heath Miller, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers
Miller ($3,300 on DraftKings, $5,600 on FanDuel) had 20 receptions for 171 yards in the first two matchups against the Bengals, with had 10 catches in each game. The Bengals have done a good job of limiting Antonio Brown this season, but if Miller can be effective again in the middle of the field it will bode well for the Steelers. In addition, as ESPN notes, no team allowed more receptions to opposing tight ends this season.
I'm Out
Adrian Peterson, QB, Minnesota Vikings
This is about price. Mostly. Peterson ($7,300 on DraftKings and $8,400 on FanDuel) is the highest-priced back on the board this week and there's ample reason to believe he won't earn his keep. In their most recent meeting, in early December, Peterson was held to just 18 yards on eight carries by Seattle's defense, which finished the season as the No. 1 rush defense in the league after allowing just 81.5 yards per game. As ESPN pointed out, Peterson has been held under 70 rushing yards in five outings against playoff teams this season (including the sub-20 yard effort on Dec. 6). Game flow was an issue in that first game as the Seahawks quickly fell behind. But that's part of the problem. Teddy Bridgewater has yet to demonstrate an ability to carry the team against high-end opposition when the need arises. Seattle will focus their attention on Peterson once again. All in all, I’m looking elsewhere this week.
A few others I'll be rolling with this week: I'm not all that keen on the matchup, but with DeAngelo Williams out Steelers running back Fitzgerald Toussaint has to be of some interest to those loading up at other positions. He's a bargain at $3,900 on DraftKings (where he seems like a sweet flex play) and $5,700 on FanDuel. McCarron is also cheap and facing a favorable matchup vs. the Steelers. If Washington running back Matt Jones doesn't play (he's been limited this week by the same sore hip that sidelined him last week), Pierre Thomas becomes another cheap flex option worth considering on DraftKings ($3,400) -- but ONLY if there's no Jones (and yes, I'm reaching; we're talking tournament play here). And finally, Washington's Defense is going up against a Green Bay offense that has allowed a league-high 18 sacks over the last four weeks. The Redskins led the league in sacks in that same span with 17. And they're cheap.