Week 19: Three And OutThree DFS players I'm investing heavily in this week. ... And one I'm not.
By Bob Harris
I'm In
Carson Palmer, QB, Arizona Cardinals
While the Packers defense went "Beast Mode" in Washington, nailing Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins for six sacks last weekend, they didn't disrupt Palmer much in the last meeting between these two teams (a 38-8 Cardinals win in Week 16), hitting the 36-year-old signal caller just four times and sacking him twice. As ESPN.com notes, in addition being 5-1 at home this season, Palmer has thrown for 300 or more yards in five of those games while completing about 65 percent of his passes. Also per ESPN, four of the past five QBs to play at home against the Packers had multi-touchdown efforts. Teddy Bridgewater was the outlier, but the second-year man racked up season-high 339 passing yards. Also worth noting: Palmer, who has tossed 32 TD passes this season, also hasn't thrown an interception in his last four games. As the Sports Xchange suggested, Palmer is in a rhythm that will be tough for the Packers to knock him out of, especially with his top five receivers all healthy. Yes, he's chalky and expensive ($6,500 on DraftKings and $8,900 on FanDuel). And the possible return of Packers CB Sam Shields (questionable, concussion) is worth noting. Still, Palmer looks like the best play on the board to me this week.
Greg Olsen, TE, Carolina Panthers
If Palmer is the best player on the board, Olsen is pushing him. Until Cam Newton led the Panthers to touchdowns on their final two drives against Seattle in Week 6, he had generated no more than 17 points in any of the four previous losses to Seattle and the Panthers averaged 9.3 points at home in three losses to the Seahawks. A big reason for the turnaround was Olsen, who had seven catches for 131 yards, including a game-winning 26-yard touchdown with 32 seconds left in that Week 6 win. As SI.com notes, the Seahawks have led the NFL in scoring defense in each of the last four years, making them one of the historically great defenses in league history. But it has an obvious Achilles’ heel: Tight ends. The Seahawks have given up 75 catches for 873 yards and eight touchdowns to the position this season. Yes, it's another chalky pick, but Newton is going to look for Olsen ($6,900 on DraftKings and $6,500 on FanDuel) on a regular basis and he's a big reason the Panthers lead the league in scoring with 31.2 points per game this season.
Devin Funchess, WR, Carolina Panthers
For those of you choking on the chalk dust from my previous picks, here's some relief in the form of Funchess. Yes, there are plenty of guys who fit the outlier profile this week, but did I mention the Panthers lead NFL in per-game scoring this season? I did? Well, that aside, Funchess picked up the pace down the stretch. In the first seven games of his career, the rookie had a meager seven catches for 90 yards and zero touchdowns. As the team's official web site conceded, "Drops were magnified in his limited opportunities." But Funchess broke through in the Week 9 victory against the Packers. He went on to score a touchdown in every other game. In Weeks 9 through 17, he recorded 24 catches for 383 yards and five touchdowns. His best performance came in the regular season finale against the Buccaneers, when he posted a career-high seven catches for 120 yards and a touchdown. HC Ron Rivera recently called Funchess ($3,400 on DraftKings and $5,300 on FanDuel) a potential "X-factor" for the playoffs. With his size (6-4, 225 pounds) and athletic ability, and with the confidence he’s gained late in the season, the rising rookie could very well be a difference maker for you as well -- especially if Ted Ginn (questionable, knee) plays as expected and draws Seahawks CB Richard Sherman in coverage. And did I mention the Panthers lead the NFL in scoring? Okay. I thought so.
I'm Out
Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers
Look. I'm not expecting a replay of the Week 16 drubbing the Cardinals dealt the Pack in Week 16. In case you missed it, Green Bay managed only eight points in its 30-point loss to the Cardinals that day. The Packers ran 64 plays in that game, but they were done in by four turnovers (three from Rodgers, who lost two fumbles that were returned for touchdowns) and nine sacks (eight of Rodgers) as they gained but 178 total yards with Rodgers' arm responsible for 151 yards and the lone score. But even if it's not a total repeat, it's going to be tough sledding for Rodgers, who according to ESPN.com, ranks 28th in the league among all QBs with a 53 percent completion percentage when blitzed. The Cardinals blitz just over 45 percent of the time, the most of any team in the NFL. Davante Adams' (knee) absence isn't a big a concern as the offensive line -- even with left tackle David Bakhtiari (probable, ankle) expected to return. If it all sounds like Rodgers has all the makings of a great contrarian play, his price ($6,700 on DraftKings and $8,300 on FanDuel) says otherwise.
A few others I'll be rolling with this week: Both Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders will be going up against a Steeler defense that's allowed the most receiving yards to opposing receivers in the NFL and given up 10 touchdown catches to the position in the last six weeks. Panthers CB Josh Norman is really good, but Robert McClain, who was signed off the street on Dec. 15, will likely start against the Seahawks opposite Norman, and Cortland Finnegan, whose performance in the slot has been average, may continue that role. As SI.com suggested, Doug Baldwin (who works out of the slot more than 80 percent of the time), Tyler Lockett and Jermaine Kearse, who runs a lot of the routes Jimmy Graham was running before he was hurt, might all be viable plays. Also, Tom Brady has completed 69 percent of his passes with Julian Edelman on the field and just 59.2 percent without him. Additionally, the Patriots scored at least 30 points six times with Edelman, but reached that number just once without him. I could play both.