Week 20: Three And OutThree DFS players I'm investing heavily in this week. ... And one I'm not.
By Bob Harris
I'm In
Carson Palmer, Arizona Cardinals
Heading into Sunday night's game, the Cardinals have a distinct advantage with their receivers against the Panthers defensive backs. The challenge will be giving Palmer ($6,800 on DraftKings, $7,700 on FanDuel) time to take advantage of it. The Cardinals won't abandon the run game, but don't expect them to try and pound away at the Panthers. They are too good against the run, and it doesn't play to the Cardinals' strengths. And yes, Panthers cornerback is very good. But the Cardinals' personnel pose multiple problems. Do you try to stop the size of Michael Floyd? The speed of John Brown? Larry Fitzgerald, last weeks' top outside threat, lines up in the slot where Norman never goes. David Johnson's receiving skills add to the Panthers difficulties -- which include a makeshift secondary once you get past Norman. In fact, as ESPN.com notes, the Panthers have allowed three straight 300-yard passers and rank 27th against the pass over the last five games. In addition, no defense faced more pass attempts during the regular season than the Panthers (40.6 per game) and the Cardinals average more than 35 pass attempts per game. In addition, as the third highest (or second lowest)-priced QB on both DraftKings and FanDuel, he offers flexibility under the cap.
Jonathan Stewart, Carolina Panthers
The Cardinals have allowed 381 rushing yards in their last three games, which plays right into the hands of Carolina's 2nd-ranked run game. The Panthers should be able to establish the tone early -- much like they did against Seattle last Sunday, when Stewart ($5,900 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel) got off to a fast start. As ESPN.com pointed out, with at least 20 touches in nine of his past 10 games (and nine touchdowns in his past 10, including a score in three straight), Stewart, who is listed as probable after tweaking an ankle against the Seahawks, gets a shot at the same defense that allowed the Packers to run for 114 yards.
Julian Edelman, New England Patriots
New England hasn't lost a game in which Edelman ($7,500 on DraftKings, $7,800 on FanDuel) has played this season, and its offense is vastly more efficient when Edelman is on the field, scoring 12.45 more points per 60 minutes with Edelman than without. Broncos CB Chris Harris is expected to play despite an injured shoulder, but he will need to try to find a way to be physical and disruptive despite the injury, because if Edelman has free releases, he will find gaps underneath and room to roam. As SBNation.com pointed out, Denver's coaching staff will have to work on isolating Edelman in favorable match-ups throughout the game. Broncos cornerback Aqib Talib struggles with the shiftier wide receivers, Harris will be at less than full speed and Bradley Roby allows a generous average of 4.32 yards after the catch, per ProFootballFocus.com
I'm Out
Ted Ginn, Carolina Panthers
Yes. The price is reasonable. And Ginn ($4,300 on DraftKings, $6,200 on FanDuel) led all Carolina wide receivers with 44 catches for 739 yards and 10 touchdowns. He was a big reason the Panthers led the league in scoring (31.2 points per game). But the Cardinals secondary boasts talent to lock down on Ginn. Indeed, as ESPN.com pointed out, Arizona, allowed the lowest completion percentage in the NFL when it came to passes of 15 or more yards downfield this season with just 33.3 percent. While there’s some discussion as to how much Cardinals CB Patrick Peterson helps out with Panthers TE Greg Olsen, Arizona has other options for dealing with him. As Bleacher Report suggested, if there's one thing that could hurt the Cardinals on Sunday more than Olsen's racking up double-digit catches, it's Ginn's getting behind the defense for a cheap score. Also worth noting, Ginn’s 10 touchdown catches came in six games (with four of them two-TD efforts). In games he hasn’t scored, Ginn has averaged 2.2 catches and 39.7 yards per game while falling short of 100 receiving in all nine of those outings.
A few others I'll be rolling with this week: Panthers TE Greg Olsen and Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski are great plays regardless of price. Broncos WR Emmanuel Sanders will also be in plenty of my lineups this week. The truth is, it’s hard to find guys I don’t want to play this week given the narrow slate. One exception: Patriots RB Steven Jackson, who isn’t getting much work with the Patriots focusing on the pass (and the Broncos’ stingy run defense making it likely that approach will continue), isn’t appealing even at his minimum salary. The veteran newcomer’s best chances would seem to be goal-line carries, but the Patriots are just fine letting QB Tom Brady handle those.