The Hunter Report - DFS Week 5

Don’t you hate it when you’ve got a group of players you dig in DFS play, only to put the wrong combination together?

It sure would’ve been nice to have Drew Brees and Devonta Freeman locked into my lineups, eh? I suggested both last week, although I didn’t highlight or use either. I sure hope you were able to use both of those nuggets of success towards a successful payday.

Did you get burned rostering Andrew Luck? I hope you were Johnny-on-the-Spot and switched him out in the nick of time.

The running back position let me down last week, mainly since I relied too heavily on Latavius Murray and Arian Foster in most of my lineups. My fault for slotting Foster in and expecting solid production off injury, but I just couldn’t get over his price tag. At least I didn’t use him in the FantasyFeud.com FootballDieHards season salary cap league.

I currently rank 12th out of 46 teams for the season, although I need to pull out another big week like I did in Week 1 if I expect to be the almighty victor. All hail!

Here was my Week 4 lineup, which slotted me in at 16th place out of 46 teams for the week. I tallied 117.54 points:

QB – Andy Dalton, CIN
QB – Kirk Cousins, WAS
RB – Latavius Murray, OAK
RB – Karlos Williams, BUF
WR – A.J. Green, CIN
WR – T.Y. Hilton, IND
TE – Zach Ertz, PHI
FLEX – Emmanuel Sanders, DEN
FLEX – Pierre Garcon, WAS
DEF – St. Louis Cardinals

I added Karlos Williams into my lineup at the last moment, so I’m thankful for that since I did have Arian Foster there before. Whew.

I think I’ve given up on Zach Ertz, although I pretty much said that I would last week. But, seriously, I’m for sure giving up on Ertz. Ha.

Overall, this was a solid producing lineup all the way around aside from Murray; however, if you want to win each week you’ve got to have a boom player like Devonta Freeman.

Congrats to NDSFFAN1987 for taking first place in Week 4 with 151.9 points! By the way, he had Devonta Freeman in his lineup. Boom!

Let’s check out what Week 5 has to offer us, shall we?


Bye Week: Carolina Panthers; Miami Dolphins; Minnesota Vikings; New York Jets


QUARTERBACK

Top Level

Peyton Manning, DEN @ Oakland Raiders ($140,100) – I could be totally, totally obvious and suggest Tom Brady here. Like, totally. I just have a difficult time paying almost $160 K for Brady. Sheesh. That’s a crap-ton of salary for one guy, ain’t it? Manning draws a chunk of salary as well, although I expect him to put up very similar numbers to Brady for $20 K less. The Raiders are getting killed through the air, allowing 8 TDs through four games. As much as I dream of a Raiders upset victory, it’s probably not going to happen. Manning will take advantage of his lovely receiving duo, Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas.

Other choices: Drew Brees, NO @ Philadelphia Eagles ($137,500); Carson Palmer, CIN @ Detroit Lions ($134,500)

Mid-Range

Marcus Mariota, TEN vs. Buffalo Bills ($115,400) – Supposedly, the Bills are good defensively. And, as a whole unit, that’s true – they’re solid, or I expect them to be for the remainder of the year; however, the Bills have given up 10 TD passes this season, so they’ve been porous at times. Mariota is an under-the-radar play for me at a mid-range price. So, there’s value here. I see 250 yards and 2 TD passes for Mariota considering his play through three weeks of play. The youngster has 8 TD passes – impressive, huh? Don’t forget Mariota had his bye week in Week 4, so the numbers seem more impressive now don’t they?

Other choices: Joe Flacco, BAL vs. Cleveland Browns ($118,200); Alex Smith, KC vs. Chicago Bears ($115,600)

Value

Kirk Cousins, WAS @ Atlanta Falcons ($108,700) – I was dead on with Cousins last week. Yeah, I’m patting myself on the back, so what? I like Cousins again this week. The Falcons aren’t bad against the pass, but I like the Redskins to score at least 21 points in Week 5 and Cousins will get a piece of that action. By the way, I really like finding value at QB – it’s been a successful lineup process for me in the past.

Other choices: Jameis Winston, TB vs. Jacksonville Jaguars ($109,400)

Over-Value

Tom Brady, NE @ Dallas Cowboys ($158,400) – Yeah, yeah, I know, I know, this is Brady we’re talking about, right? Sorry, but I’m not paying this kind of dough for one player. I just can’t see finding enough values over the rest of my lineup to make Brady worth the play. Prove me wrong if you want.


RUNNING BACK

Top Level

Eddie Lacy, GB vs. St. Louis Rams ($129,200) – This is a good week to roster Lacy considering the Rams are having a difficult time keeping running backs from racking up points. Lacy has an excellent shot of reaching the end zone and his price tag isn’t too outrageous. Lacy is averaging 4.6 yards per carry, which certainly makes most of us happy. If I’m choosing a running back to build around this week, it’s either Lacy or Jamaal Charles. Lacy is a bit riskier, however, hence Charles’ $143.2 K salary.

Other choices: Jamaal Charles, KC vs. Chicago Bears ($143,200); Devonta Freeman, ATL vs. Washington Redskins ($117,500)

Mid-Range

Dion Lewis, NE @ Dallas Cowboys ($107,400) – You have to love what Lewis has done to this point in the season, averaging 16.67 FPPG. Lewis is coming off a bye week and draws a favorable matchup facing the Cowboys, who have allowed five rushing TDs so far. The Patriots offense is running on all cylinders right now, and Lewis is a nifty little mid-range value.

Other choices: Carlos Hyde @ New York Giants ($84,700); Alfred Morris, WAS @ Atlanta Falcons ($75,800);

Value

Khiry Robinson, NO @ Philadelphia Eagles ($47,500) – In three out of four of Robinson’s games this season he’s averaged 9 FPPG. I know that C.J. Spiller is back in action, but I really believe that Robinson will see an increase in his workload in the weeks to come especially when it comes to goal line touches. The Saints like using Robinson in short yardage situations, mainly since dude can bust tackles with the best of ‘em. I love Robinson in Week 4, even with the Eagles keeping running backs at bay for the most part. If you need to squeeze a RB into your lineup for less than $50 K, Robinson is your guy. Of course there’s always C.J. Anderson who has failed miserably in 2015, but you know what? I like him as a value too and expect a bust-out week. The matchup facing the Raiders is intriguing, isn’t it?

Other choices: C.J. Anderson, DEN @ Oakland Raiders ($69,900)

Over-Value

Todd Gurley, STL @ Green Bay Packers ($109,900) – Are you ready to pay almost $110 K for Gurley, based on one week? Hmm. Not me. The Packers have allowed four rushing TDs to this point against opponents, but they’ve really shut down RBs yardage-wise. Gurley is overvalued and if you’re expecting a repeat of last week? Forget it. Don’t get suckered into Gurley, even though the kid is obviously talented.


WIDE RECEIVER
Top Level

Julio Jones, ATL vs. Washington Redskins ($147,500) – Does Jones bounce back from last week’s miserable 5.80 point performance? I expect him to, which is why he’s gracing some of my lineups this week. The salary is steep, but Jones is worth it compared to the rest of the top-level field. I like him to outshine Antonio Brown, Julian Edelman and Demaryius Thomas, all who float below at about $10 K less. The difference will be enough to warrant the salary difference. Trust me.

Other choices: Antonio Brown, PIT @ San Diego Chargers ($132,100); Larry Fitzgerald, ARI @ Detroit Lions

Mid-Range

Jeremy Maclin, KC vs. Chicago Bears ($119,000) – The Bears have given up far too much through the air this season. Maclin is getting targeted a bunch by Alex Smith, and he’s hauling in a fantastic amount of catches. Over Maclin’s last two games, he has snagged 19 balls for 289 yards. Not bad. Of course, depending on a Maclin TD score seems to be a fruitless endeavor considering the Chiefs’ recent woes. I’m sure we’ve all heard by now the Chiefs don’t score through the air via wide receiver. Consider a Maclin TD a major bonus.

Other choices: Vincent Jackson, TB vs. Jacksonville Jaguars ($101,800)

Value

Allen Hurns, JAC @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($93,100) – I’m not expecting another 11 catches for Hurns like last week, but there’s no reason to believe he won’t give DFS owners 5 catches and 80 yards. Plus, he just might score for you. The Bucs aren’t terribly tough against the pass and Hurns is actually a nice contrarian play for my lineups. If you’re really looking for a lower-priced option at WR, consider Kamar Aiken who is getting lots of attention from Joe Flacco.

Other choices: Leonard Hankerson, ATL vs. Washington Redskins ($87,600); Kamar Aiken, BAL vs. Cleveland Browns ($65,400)

Over-Value

Odell Beckham, NYG vs. San Francisco 49ers ($129,800) – Don’t let Beckham’s one-handed out of bounds catch last week put you in a DFS trance. Yes, it was a magical catch even if it didn’t count. Normally, I’m all over Beckham but this knee-injury thing and his $133.6 K salary have me shying away. And, no, I won’t be shocked if Beckham lights it up in Week 5; however, I think you can do better for the salary.


TIGHT END

Top Level

Rob Gronkowski, NE @ Dallas Cowboys ($140,200)

Mid-Range

Martellus Bennett, CHI @ Kansas City ($117,800)

Value

Gary Barnidge, CLE @ Baltimore Ravens ($75,900)

Over-Value

Jimmy Graham, SEA @ Cincinnati Bengals ($108,600)


Good luck in Week 5! Feel free to stalk me on Twitter: @TheRolyPolyBoy